Research: Dollar at 5-week high on Iran tensions, yet history shows –0.19% average return in month one of conflicts
As U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran send investors scrambling for safety, the question is this: which safe-haven assets actually deliver when geopolitical crises erupt?
InvestorsObserver analyzed the performance of gold, the U.S. dollar, the Swiss franc, and Bitcoin across five major conflicts – from Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 to Operation Rising Lion in 2025.
We tracked returns at 1-month, 6-month, and 12-month intervals to separate crisis-hedge reality from market myth.
The findings challenge conventional wisdom: the dollar’s safe-haven status is inconsistent, gold can fail during rapid de-escalations, and only one asset has appreciated in 100% of conflicts analyzed.
Key findings
Gold failed during Operation Rising Lion
Gold fell 3.17% during Operation Rising Lion in 2025, breaking a decades-long pattern of crisis-driven gains, because rapid conflict resolution eliminated the geopolitical premium.
The dollar’s safe-haven status is a myth
DXY averaged –0.19% in the first month of conflicts and fell 5.5% over 12 months after the 2024 Iran-Israel attack.
Swiss Franc (CHF) has a 100% win rate
CHF appreciated vs. USD in every single conflict analyzed, spanning from World War I to 2025.
Bitcoin’s performance is event-specific, not systematic
Bitcoin fell 43.3% during Ukraine but rose 0.42% during the 2025 Iran escalation.
Read the full report here.
ABOUT SAM BOURGI
Sam Bourgi is a finance analyst and researcher at InvestorsObserver, bringing over 13 years of expertise in financial markets, economics, and monetary policy. His professional background spans the private, nonprofit, and public sectors, where he has held positions such as senior policy adviser, labor market analyst, and marketing director. Sam’s in-depth research and market analysis have been referenced by leading institutions and organizations, including the U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Bank for International Settlements, Boston University Law Review, Barron’s, and Forbes. Sam regularly appears on TV, including FOX 5 DC, CBN, KFYR TV, 11Alive, and ABC30, and is often quoted by such media outlets as Bloomberg, SF Chronicle and ZeroHedge.
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