UT Tyler Poll Reveals Texas Voters’ Views Ahead of March Primaries 

UTTylerPoll_202602_FINAL226 COR FEB 2026 Poll Final Topline Report

 

TYLER, Texas (February 27, 2026) – The University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research  recently surveyed 1,117 Texas voters about their views ahead of the March 2026 primary election, with topics covering hypothetical political matchups and current state issues. In the survey conducted Feb. 13 – 22, 959 of those voters reached indicated they were “likely” or “certain” to  vote in this primary election. 

Primary Election Races 

In the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate, Jasmine Crockett led James Talarico 58% to 37%  among likely voters. “Despite the national attention this race has received, 43% of voters say they  have only heard a little about what makes each candidate different from the other,” said Dr. Ken  Wink, UT Tyler professor and interim center director. “The Democratic primary voters in this survey  also indicated they believed Crockett would be as electable in the November general election as  Talarico.” 

In the Governor’s race, Gina Hinojosa led Chris Bell 59% to 25%, and in the race for Attorney  General, Nathan Johnson led Joe Jaworski 35% to 32% among likely voters. “While it appears that  Crockett and Hinojosa will avoid a run-off primary, Johnson and Jaworski will likely face off again in  May in a run-off primary,” Wink said. 

In the Republican primary, incumbent Senator John Cornyn led challenger Ken Paxton, 41% to 35%  among likely voters. Assuming a May run-off between Cornyn and Paxton, supporters of Wesley  Hunt, (currently polling at 15%), said they would prefer Paxton 57% to 37% if Hunt did not make the  run-off, Wink noted. 

“The results indicate that a May run-off primary for Senate on the Republican side would favor  Cornyn over Paxton by approximately 3% of the vote, if Hunt supporters turn out to vote even if  Hunt is not on the ballot,” he added.  

  

The Attorney General race on the Republican side also appears to be headed for a run-off primary,  as Chip Roy leads Mayes Middleton 36% to 26% among likely voters, Wink said. Supporters of third place candidate Joan Huffman (currently at 21%) favor Mayes Middleton 33% to Chip Roy’s 23% as  a second choice, assuming Ms. Huffman does not make the run-off. “The results indicate a  

relatively close May run-off primary, with Roy leading Middleton by roughly 8%, assuming voter  turnout is similar to the March primary,” he added.  

Hypothetical Matchups 

The poll questions did not ask about head-to-head races for the Senate in the general election in  November, however, Wink noted the pollsters did ask respondents about the perceived chances  that their preferred candidates would win the general election.  

“Republicans were very confident that either Cornyn or Paxton could win in November,” he said. “When asked what the chances would be that a candidate would win a hypothetical matchup in  November, 62%-68% of likely Republican primary voters believed the Republican candidate would  win at least 65% of the vote in four hypothetical matchups.” 

Republicans also believed the closest race might be a Cornyn-Talarico matchup, but 69% of  Republican-likely voters thought Cornyn would still win the general election comfortably (earning at  least 55% of the vote). “Democratic primary voters were less confident, but still between 52% and  56% of them believed either Crockett or Talarico could win comfortably in November, with Talarico  having a 2% better chance than Crockett to defeat a Republican in the general election,” Wink said. 

In head-to-head hypothetical November general election races for Governor, registered voters  favored incumbent Greg Abbott against either Democratic challenger, be it 49% to 41% over Gina  Hinojosa or 51% to 39% over Chris Bell. In the race for Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Dan Patrick  maintains a 47% to 42% lead over challenger Vikki Goodwin. 

“While it is a long way until November, with some run-off primaries likely in May, we see  Republicans with slim leads over Democrats in hypothetical statewide general election matchups.  On the one hand, self-reported Republicans still outnumber self-reported Democrats by 6% among  likely voters,” Wink added. “Yet, inflation is now the number one issue in Texas, replacing border  security as the top issue of concern –– this fact suggests this is not the year for Republicans to take  voters for granted. On a more positive note for Republicans, though, there were 8% fewer  respondents in this survey, compared to a survey taken one year ago, who said higher prices are  having a major impact on their household.” 

Visit the polling center website for more information about current and previous studies. 

With a mission to improve educational and health care outcomes for East Texas and beyond, UT  Tyler offers more than 90 undergraduate and graduate programs to more than 11,500 students.  Through its alignment with UT Tyler Health Science Center and UT Health East Texas, UT Tyler has  unified these entities to serve Texas with quality education, cutting-edge research and excellent  patient care. Classified by Carnegie as a doctoral research institution and by U.S. News & World  Report as a national university, UT Tyler has campuses in Tyler, Longview, Palestine and Houston.