Texas Demographic Center: Your Monthly Data Update

By Editor | February 1, 2026 |

MONTHLY DATA UPDATE

New 2025 Estimates Show Texas Growth but at a Slower Rate

Newly Released Data

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 Population Estimates

Newly released Vintage 2025 Census Bureau population estimates show that Texas continues to grow, though at a slower pace than in the most recent years. Texas’ population reached 31.7 million in July 2025, a 1.2% increase from the previous year, more than twice the 0.5% national growth rate. Despite the slowdown, Texas still led the nation in total population numeric gains, adding more than 391K residents over the year.

Texas’ Daily Population Growth and Components of Change, 2020-2025

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 Population Estimates

Note: Components of change may not add to the total population change due to the minor residual components in the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates

Between 2024 and 2025, Texas added more than 1,000 new residents per day, a sharp decline from the 1,500 to more than 1,600 daily additions reported between 2021 and 2024. This slowdown reflects reduced net migration to Texas from both abroad (net international migration) and from other states in the US (net domestic migration).

Of the 1,072 new residents per day, 459 were added through international migration, 184 through domestic migration, and 432 through natural increase (more births than deaths). International migration has fallen from peak levels of around 900 new residents per day earlier in the decade, and domestic migration has reached its lowest point since 2020. With migration slowing, natural increase accounted for 40% of Texas’ 2024–2025 growth, compared to only one-quarter in the years following the pandemic.

A Decade of Change in Undergraduate Enrollment

Undergraduate College Enrollment in Texas and Selected States, 2014 and 2024

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, 2014 and 2024

The chart illustrates a decade of shifting undergraduate enrollment across several large states, highlighting the national trend often referred to as the “demographic cliff.” Most states shown, including California, New York, Florida, and Illinois, experienced notable declines in college enrollment between 2014 and 2024, driven primarily by long‑term drops in birth rates.

In contrast, Alabama, Idaho, Texas, and Utah stand out as exceptions, with Texas and Utah in particular showing modest yet positive growth over the same period. These differences suggest that future enrollment patterns will be shaped not only by demographic changes but also by migration flows and economic conditions, all of which influence where students live and choose to pursue higher education.

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DATA UPDATES

Vintage 2025 Population Estimates

The U.S. Census Bureau recently released the Vintage 2025 Population Estimates which provides estimates of total population and voting-age population for the nation, states and Puerto Rico, as well as corresponding annual estimates and components of change since the 2020 Census.

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2020-2024 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates

The U.S. Census Bureau is set to release the 5-year ACS on January 29, 2026. This survey provides statistics about the nation’s people and housing, such as language spoken at home, education, commuting, employment, mortgage/rent status, income, poverty and health insurance coverage.

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