Long-range weather forecast predicts above-average rainfall for East Texas

Based on the latest data from the Climate Prediction Center and regional outlooks, here is what the next three months (April–June 2026) look like for East Texas.

Three-Month Outlook (April – June 2026)

While the El Niño event itself is likely to emerge later this summer, the immediate transition from La Niña to “neutral” conditions will drive the spring weather.

Category	Outlook for East Texas	Details
Precipitation	Wetter than Normal	There is a high probability of above-average rainfall. April and May, in particular, are expected to be active months with frequent thunderstorm systems.
Temperature	Warmer than Normal	Average highs are expected to be roughly 5°F above historical norms. This means more days reaching into the 80s in April and potentially early 90s by June.
Severe Weather	Elevated Activity	The transition to El Niño often makes the spring “stormier.” Forecasters are watching for increased thunderstorm activity and a potential tropical system in late May.

---

Month-by-Month Breakdown

• April: Expect a warm and wet month. Long-range models suggest several periods of thunderstorms, particularly in the middle of the month (April 13–19) and toward the final week.

• May: This is predicted to be a “very warm” month. Rainfall should remain above normal, and there is an early-season watch for tropical moisture or a weak tropical storm moving into the Gulf by late May.

• June: As El Niño begins to take hold, the summer heat will arrive early. The first two weeks of June are projected to be the hottest, with temperatures consistently above average.

The “Springtime Barrier”

Meteorologists call this time of year the “predictability barrier.” Because the Pacific Ocean is in a state of flux (moving from cool La Niña to warm El Niño), long-range forecasts can shift more than usual. However, the current consensus is that the dry, drought-prone pattern of the last few years is finally breaking in favor of a much wetter season.

Gemini