What the forecast models are showing for the winter storm track this weekend
Most Likely Storm Track
The storm system is expected to move out of the Southwest starting Friday and track across the Southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley and Southeast, before reaching the Mid-Atlantic over the weekend National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
. The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center indicates this will be a widespread event with significant winter weather impacts.
Key Model Guidance
Both major forecast models (GFS and European) are showing general agreement on the broad storm track, though there are some differences in timing:
- Both the American GFS and European forecast models agree that the massive storm will bring winter weather from Nevada to New York FOX Weather
- The Weather Prediction Center is using a consensus blend of 40% European model, 40% GFS, and 20% Canadian model, with the blend providing a middle ground between the faster GFS solution and the slower European solution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Geographic Impact Zone
Southern Ice Storm Belt: The highest ice probabilities stretch from portions of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and into portions of South Carolina and North Carolina National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Snow Belt: Widespread snow is expected from Oklahoma through the southern Ohio Valley, and possibly into the Mid-Atlantic FOX Weather
Timing
- Friday: Storm impacts begin in the Southern Plains (Texas, Oklahoma)
- Saturday: Expands eastward into Tennessee Valley and Southeast
- Sunday: Reaches the Mid-Atlantic region
The models show high confidence in a significant winter event, though exact precipitation types and amounts at specific locations remain somewhat uncertain this far out. The Weather Prediction Center emphasizes that exact details will need to be worked out over the coming days National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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