Plenty of turkeys this Thanksgiving as wholesale prices hold steady

David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist and professor in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics, said wholesale and retail prices are slightly higher per pound than last year, but market factors suggest shoppers can find deals on centerpiece Thanksgiving turkeys.

In late October, wholesale whole turkeys averaged $1.80 per pound, Anderson said. That compares with $1.69 per pound for the same week last year, when wholesale prices had jumped 70% from 99 cents. Wholesale prices this year have run consistently higher than in 2025, he said, but the gap has narrowed.

Wholesale prices are what grocers and other retailers pay suppliers in the “spot” market, not what shoppers pay at the register. The spot market is where buyers who need turkeys and sellers who have them make a deal that may not reflect earlier contracted bird prices. Anderson said retail turkey prices often reflect store promotions and earlier contracted prices more than the wholesale spot market.

So, what will shoppers actually pay?

“National average grocery store prices for whole, conventionally produced, frozen turkeys in early November averaged $1.26 per pound compared to $1.03 a year ago,” Anderson said. “Of course, your store may have a different price, and they may have promotions to draw shoppers.”

Turkey production rebounds

Turkey production has recovered from last year’s decline of more than 8%. The number of birds going to market is up about 3%, and heavier average weights push total pounds of production up nearly 6%.

“That tells me there are plenty of turkeys,” Anderson said.

A few highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks have been reported in recent weeks, he said, but not enough to significantly affect holiday supplies. Better demand, higher wholesale prices and lower feed costs have also improved conditions for turkey producers.

More specials expected

Last year, retail surveys showed fewer turkey specials than usual. This year looks different. The U.S. Department of Agriculture retail report for late October shows more grocery stores featuring turkeys than at the same point last year, Anderson said.

About 2,500 stores nationwide are advertising frozen conventional whole birds, both under and over 16 pounds, he said.

Grocers contract for Thanksgiving turkeys well in advance and use them to draw customers into stores, he said. Anderson expects more features as the holiday gets closer.

He said Thanksgiving turkey demand has held up well over the years, while demand for a second turkey around Christmas has faded.

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Panhandle

Rain fell repeatedly across the district, with amounts ranging from half an inch to more than 2 inches in some areas. Temperatures cooled. Fog and higher-than-normal humidity lingered. Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels improved significantly. Cotton harvest halted as producers waited for bolls to open and topsoil to dry. Most corn acres were harvested for silage and grain, though a few grain acres remained. Wheat and other small grains were emerging, and rain events pushed the small grain season off to an excellent start on both irrigated and dryland acres. Winter wheat was planted across the district and fields continued to emerge. Pasture and range grasses showed noticeable growth after the rain. Hay prices were high due to short supplies. Livestock conditions were poor to excellent.

South Plains

Cool, cloudy weather and repeated showers kept fields wet, with totals from half an inch to 3 inches depending on the area. Topsoil moisture levels were short to adequate while subsoil conditions were very short to adequate. Winter wheat was being planted as fast as producers could get it in to capture the moisture, and emerged stands were thriving in some areas. Topsoil crusting was a problem almost everywhere and caused germination issues in some fields. Overall, winter wheat was in poor to excellent condition. Cotton harvest slowed sharply with plans to restart once fields dry, and most gins finished the cotton already delivered. Some irrigated cotton began putting on regrowth that producers expected to be difficult to terminate. Continuous rain also slowed peanut harvest, and silage and haygrazer cutting stalled because moisture was too high. Warm soil temperatures and sunny breaks allowed pasture grasses to green up. Livestock conditions were very poor to good and improved slightly in some areas.

Rolling Plains

Slow soaking rains of 1 to 3 inches arrived late in the week and continued a wet stretch across the district. Topsoil moisture levels were short to adequate while subsoil conditions were very short to adequate. Wheat made a dramatic turnaround, and emerged stands were thriving where producers managed to get seed in the ground. Wheat planting was nearing completion but stopped in places where fields held water or washed out. Some wheat dusted in early came up with heavy weed pressure and was poorly rated. Many of those acres were being replanted. Subsoil moisture remained limited and an extended dry period could still hurt the crop. Any cotton remaining may not be harvested. Rains helped green up pastures, but it was too late to add much warm-season grass grazing value. Stockers moved into the district and were fed supplemental hay or placed in feedlots, and some ranchers continued sending calves to market. Hay was cut and baled late in the season, and hay supplies were as large as producers have had in recent years. Livestock conditions were very poor to good.

North

Soil moisture was short again after nearly a month without rainfall in parts of the district, and moderate to severe drought persisted. Up to 1 inch of rain fell in some areas late in the week, and a slow drizzle elsewhere soaked the ground, but more rain was needed. Topsoil moisture levels and subsoil conditions were both very short to adequate. Burn bans remained in place in some counties. Temperatures dropped into the mid-60s for the week. Winter wheat planting moved ahead steadily, with forage wheat planted first while grain wheat was delayed by dry soil or a spike in Hessian fly populations. Corn, sorghum, soybean and cotton harvests were complete. Hay harvest ended, and livestock producers started feeding hay. Pond levels were low heading into winter. Pastures showed the effects of shorter days and limited moisture, with very little additional grass growth. Livestock conditions were fair to good, and winter wheat was in very poor to good condition.

East

Drought conditions persisted and worsened, with pond, creek, lake and river levels dropping and some producers concerned about livestock water. Topsoil moisture levels were very short to short while subsoil conditions were very short to adequate. Dry, windy weather raised fire risk, and one county went back under a burn ban. Overnight lows were in the 50s with highs in the 80s, though cooler mornings, fog and heavy dew offered some relief. A major fall armyworm outbreak took a toll on remaining grass stands, and pasture mealybug turned up in additional hay meadows. Hay production wound down for the year, with producers squeezing in final cuttings of lower-quality forage. Small grain and ryegrass planting for grazing continued, though some producers were reluctant to plant winter pasture into dry soil. Cows were calving, and more producers started feeding hay. Cattle body conditions were fair to good, and overall livestock conditions were poor to excellent. The cattle market softened, with slaughter cow and bull prices declining at local markets, while cow-calf pairs held steady. Feral hog damage was reported in pastures, around small ponds and in some neighborhoods. Fall gardens continued to grow but needed watering.

Far West

Cool, wet conditions prevailed, and many parts of the district reported 1-3.25 inches of rainfall. Topsoil moisture levels and subsoil conditions were both very short to adequate. Temperatures ranged from the high 70s to the mid-50s under mild, overcast skies that gave the rain time to soak in. Cotton harvest came to a standstill in some areas and continued in others, and much of the crop had already been plowed under. Wheat planting stopped, though early planted fields looked good and more wheat was expected to go in once fields dry. Producers turned cattle onto wheat planted for feeder calves and winter calving. Pastures greened up quickly and cattle began to look better. Livestock conditions were poor to excellent. Multiple cases of New World screwworm continued to appear across the Big Bend region, and producers were checking livestock. Quail observations were encouraging, with ranchers reporting larger coveys and more birds than at this time in 2025.  Predator sightings and feral hog damage increased.

West Central

A warm, dry start to the week gave way to multiple rounds of showers. Parts of the district reported trace amounts of rainfall with most areas receiving half an inch to 2 inches and some localized areas reporting 3 inches of rain. Topsoil moisture levels were short to surplus while subsoil conditions were very short to surplus. Nights were cool and the week ran a little above normal for late October. Cotton harvest was in full swing where harvestable acres remained, though several humid days delayed activity, and later-planted cotton was being defoliated. Average yield reports from one county were at about half a bale per acre. Wheat planting was in full swing ahead of the rain, with good emergence observed. Pecan harvest was underway, and the crop looked good. Range and pasture conditions continued to improve, and alternating moisture and sunshine made for excellent fall grass growth. Some coastal fields were cut for hay. Livestock conditions were poor to good overall, and cattle were in fair to good condition on greening pastures. Producers still needed running water to fill stock tanks.

Central

Conditions split sharply across the district. Severe drought continued in some areas. Topsoil moisture levels and subsoil conditions ranged from very short to surplus. Stock tanks started drying up, and pastures suffered due to lack of rainfall. Daytime highs generally ran from the low 70s to the low 80s with mild nights. Scattered showers late in the week brought trace amounts up to almost a quarter inch of rainfall. Small grain planting and pasture overseeding moved ahead where moisture allowed, and most planted small grains emerged and looked very good. Winter wheat was in very poor to good condition overall. Elsewhere, producers waited on rain before planting. Corn, sorghum and cotton harvests were complete, and soybean harvest was mostly done. Warm-season grasses were entering dormancy and fall weed control continued. Pasture mealybug reports continued to be confirmed. Supplemental nutrition and hay feeding was underway, and hay supplies were short in the driest areas. Feeder calves sold relatively steady with moderate to good demand. Cattle and other livestock remained in good body condition and livestock conditions were very poor to good overall.

Southeast

Dry weather continued across the district, with little to no measurable rainfall. Topsoil moisture levels and subsoil conditions were both very short to adequate. Grass was very short. Burn bans remained in effect in some counties, and forestry and emergency management officials urged producers elsewhere to keep outdoor burning to a minimum. A cold front and rain were in the forecast. Producers began feeding hay and putting out syrup tubs as forages slowed. Pasture mealybug damage was widespread. Some producers unaware of the threat to forages were not treating for it and were mistaking the damage for drought stress. Ryegrass was being planted on prepared ground. Livestock conditions were fair to good. A second cutting of rice was expected to start within one to two weeks. Corn, sorghum, cotton and soybean harvests were complete.

Southwest

A storm system delivered the district’s most significant rainfall in weeks, with totals from a trace to 3 inches in most areas and isolated reports above 5 inches that caused some road flooding. Cloud cover kept daytime temperatures cooler from midweek on. The moisture helped grasses and produced a flush of cool-season forbs on rangeland for livestock and wildlife, and conditions were good for native grasses and wildflowers. Recent rains also eased the wildfire threat. Topsoil moisture levels and subsoil conditions were both very short to adequate. Warm-season grasses were going dormant. Producers were expected to resume planting winter wheat once fields dried, and some winter pastures planted earlier had not emerged because of dry soil. Cotton and winter wheat were in fair to good condition. Most row crop fields had been harvested. Producers continued supplementing nutrition for all classes of livestock in some areas, though producers expected cool-season growth to reduce that need. Pasture mealybug damage was still observed. Good fall rains raised concerns about stomach worm infestation in livestock. Pasture and rangeland were in very poor to fair condition, and livestock conditions were very poor to good. Whitetail deer entered the rut and deer activity was high, with the acorn crop still falling.

Coastal Bend

Much-needed rain fell late in the week, with amounts ranging from 1-3 inches and isolated totals neared 5 inches. Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels were very short to adequate. Winter pasture planting of oats, wheat and ryegrass continued, and the moisture was expected to help producers establish healthy stands. Some ranchers who drilled oats caught a timely shower and were waiting on soil temperatures to drop for germination. Fall armyworms remained a threat to newly seeded winter pastures. Fertilizer was being applied ahead of the rain, and fieldwork continued. Cotton harvest was mostly complete, and gins were still running around the clock and were a few weeks from slowing down. Harvest was expected to extend into November, rare for the Upper Gulf Coast, where the crop is normally picked by the end of August. The delay was attributed to an extended planting season. Corn and sorghum harvests were complete. Pecan harvest was underway in orchards and bottoms that warranted picking, though some producers reported almost no crop this year. Rain delayed haying but should refresh hay fields, and hay production was down overall from normal years. Pasture and rangeland were in very poor to good condition. Pasture conditions continued to deteriorate in the driest areas, where supplemental feeding was active. Hay cost and availability were a concern. Livestock were in very poor to good condition, and calves were doing well.

South

Rainfall was scattered and uneven. Some areas received no rain while other areas reported trace amounts up to 2.5 inches. Cooler temperatures, light drizzle and humid mornings were common. Severe drought persisted in several areas, and moderate to severe drought continued in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Topsoil moisture levels and subsoil conditions were both very short to surplus. Producers planted leafy greens, winter wheat, oats, onions and cabbage, and strawberry growers continued planting and preparing fields. Cool-season vegetables progressed well despite a difficult start. Citrus harvest continued on early varieties while late varieties matured. Growers anticipated a larger crop than last season, though grapefruits remained smaller than normal. Rangeland, pastures and hay meadows declined in drier areas but greened up where rain fell. Pasture and rangeland were in very poor to good condition overall. Hay producers baled ahead of winter dormancy, and some needed more rain for a final cutting. Livestock conditions were very poor to good overall. Supplemental feeding of hay, protein, corn and cottonseed continued for both livestock and deer, and feed prices increased at local stores. Cattle markets were mixed. Feeder and stocker cattle prices opened the week 5-10 cents higher per pound, while cow and bull prices held steady and local markets reported consistent prices. Hunting season prospects were good, with reporters describing strong deer and quail populations and a favorable browse outlook.