Super El Niño brings hope for moisture to drought-weary Texas

Storms in early October left water standing in fields across parts of the state, including some Panhandle areas that received 8-9 inches over the past few weeks. Ronnie Schnell, Ph.D., Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service state cropping systems specialist and professor in the Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Bryan-College Station, said those soggy fields can be misleading.

“We do have wet fields in places right now, but it’s surface, so it’s not deep moisture,” he said.

That helps explain why most of Texas remains in drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor map despite the recent rains, Schnell said. Even areas that caught several inches have not received enough to push them past the drought threshold.

Regional soil profiles need deep moisture

Rainfall to build deep moisture has been lacking for years in many areas, Schnell said, particularly in the Panhandle, West, South and South Central Texas. A wet spring can help some producers get by, but those gains don’t last.

“It dries up quickly because you just don’t have a lot of deep moisture,” Schnell said. “And you see that in stream flows, ponds and lakes – they’re still low.”

That is why a wetter winter would be welcome from an agronomy perspective, he said.

Schnell said moisture needs vary across the state. Panhandle and South Texas producers need rain to recharge soil profiles this winter, but they will also need in-season precipitation next year to lighten the load on irrigation.

While rain will benefit most of the state, a wet pattern could complicate producer plans in the near term. Producers working to plant winter wheat, oats and cool-season forages over the next month could see delays if repeated rains keep equipment out of fields.

“It’s just, when does it come and how much, and do we get enough of it to really recharge those profiles that are probably pretty dry in most areas of the state?” Schnell said.

What’s so ‘super’ about this El Niño?

There is no historical match for the current El Niño, said John Nielsen-Gammon, Ph.D., Texas state climatologist and Regents Professor in the Texas A&M Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Bryan-College Station. But six El Niños over the past 75 years came close in strength, and they offer clues about what Texans can expect.

Nielsen-Gammon said 2015-2016 was the last significant winter El Niño pattern while 1991-1992 produced the most memorably wet winter in that time.

“They generally produce wet weather from October through April, especially October through February, and somewhat cooler than normal temperatures,” he said. “Not dramatically so, but on the cool side because of all the rain, mainly.”

Those events also brought increased snow to the northern half of the state, he said. Computer models simulating this year’s El Niño point in the same direction – wet and probably on the cool side – giving forecasters strong confidence in the outlook.

Nielsen-Gammon said El Niño strength hinges on the Pacific trade winds, which normally pull cool water to the surface along the equator. When the winds fluctuate, so does the current that carries that cool water. This year, the current has nearly shut down.

“So, it’s almost as strong as an El Niño can get,” he said. “We’ve got nothing but hot tropical surface water across the whole of the tropical Pacific.”

The unusually warm tropics create an unusually strong temperature contrast with higher latitudes, he said. That produces a stronger jet stream positioned a little farther south than normal.

“That puts us more in the crosshairs of the weather systems that are carried along by the jet stream,” Nielsen-Gammon said.

El Niño off to a decent start

The early October storms appear to be a kickoff to that pattern, Nielsen-Gammon said. Parts of Texas have already received normal October rainfall, and much of the Panhandle, which had been especially dry, received good rain over the past couple of weeks.

“It may be too late for many agricultural crop purposes, but it’ll be nice to have the water in the ground for the wintertime,” he said.

Outlooks consistently show El Niño peaking around December and weakening through spring, he said. There is a tendency for a milder severe weather season the spring following an El Niño, and a good chance of La Niña developing next year.

“So, this is probably a one-shot deal,” Nielsen-Gammon said.

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Panhandle

Rain fell midweek and a cold front moved in behind it, bringing the first freeze of the season to parts of the district. Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels were very short to adequate. Frost killed foliage and terminal growth on cotton plants in fields across some areas. Cotton was in poor to fair condition. Boll opening progressed well over the past couple of weeks, and cotton harvest was expected to get underway across most fields. Harvest of remaining mature grain sorghum and corn fields was completed, while grain harvest was wrapping up elsewhere. Forage harvest of late-planted corn and sorghum for silage continued. Winter wheat planting continued, and conditions were favorable for planting in scattered fields. Stands in fields planted ahead of the rain looked good. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to good. Livestock conditions were very poor to good.

South Plains

Midweek rain moved across much of the district with some areas reporting 2.5-6 inches, and the first freeze of the season arrived late in the week. Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels were very short to adequate. The freeze was expected to help cotton bolls open and leaves desiccate. Cotton was in very poor to fair condition. Harvest aid applications were made as fast as they could be applied. Wet conditions limited access to some fields and rural roads. Cooler temperatures also slowed stripping, and cotton harvest got off to a slow start in fields dry enough to work. Corn harvest was finished, and a few sorghum fields remained. Peanut harvest got underway in some areas, and fields were in very poor to good condition. Winter grain planting continued as fields dried, with good emergence where seeds were planted before rains. Warm-season forages were cut for silage or hay. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to good. Native grasses improved with the rainfall, though cooler temperatures limited the gain. Livestock conditions were very poor to good and improved as grazing became more available.

Rolling Plains

Heavy rain fell from two storm systems early in the week, with totals ranging from 1-8 inches. Topsoil moisture levels were very short to surplus while subsoil conditions were very short to adequate. Fields flooded and stood in water for days in some areas, and stock tanks were filled. Low temperatures reached the high 30s, with a warming trend expected. The rain came too late to help cotton and other summer crops. Cotton was in very poor to poor condition, and corn and sorghum harvest was complete. Winter wheat planting was underway, and stands were starting to emerge, though producers were concerned about emergence in flooded fields. Wheat dusted in ahead of the rain showed average to good stands but drew heavy winter grass weed pressure that could reduce yields. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to fair. Pastures greened back up and some last-minute hay was made, while cool, wet mornings slowed hay production. Livestock conditions were very poor to good. Cattle looked good and chased green grass. Ranchers continued feeding hay and supplements but cut back where they could. Wildlife food plots started to emerge.

North

A strong cool front came through late in the week, dropping Friday daytime highs into the low 60s and bringing frigid wind chills for this time of year. Parts of the district stayed very dry and windy with no measurable rain, and soils dried quickly where moisture was received. Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels were very short to adequate. Summer crops were all harvested. Cotton was in good condition. Winter wheat ground was prepared, and planting was underway, with early planted wheat and oats already up and forage wheat and cool-season grasses emerging. Grain crops were being planted later to avoid Hessian flies and fall armyworms. Cooler weather improved production of fall vegetables, greens, lettuce and herbs. Pasture and rangeland conditions were poor to excellent. Pastures improved significantly with the rain and good growing temperatures, and hay fields were harvested again where production warranted it. Livestock conditions were fair to good, and fall-born calves were doing well. Nuisance flies around livestock increased. Feral hogs were active in some areas.

East

A cold front moved through late in the week, lowering temperatures, but no rain fell in most of the district. Highs reached the low-90s and lows fell into the high 40s, and winds picked up sharply behind the front. Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels were very short to adequate. A few light showers delivered trace amounts in some areas, but soils dried out again. Small ponds were drying up. Cotton and peanuts were both in good to excellent condition. Producers continued planting cool-season forages, and some were forced to replant earlier plantings where heavy rainfall washed stands out. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to good. Pastures declined under the dry conditions, and hay season wound down as cooler low temperatures halted grass growth, though some producers were still cutting and baling last cuttings. Livestock conditions were very poor to good. Producers supplemented livestock diets with hay and cubes as grazing thinned. Cattle markets held strong demand for beef cattle. Feral hogs remained a problem across parts of the district.

Far West

Widespread rainfall moved across the Big Bend region, and a cold front pushed into the area Friday. Temperatures dropped into the 30s in the upper elevations, and strong winds followed the front. Rainfall totals ranged from 1-4 inches. Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels were very short to adequate. Cotton was in very poor to good condition. The weather caused cotton to string out and some fell to the ground, though not enough to affect yields. Cotton harvest was delayed a few days for most growers and moved along elsewhere. Crop insurance adjusters allowed a large portion of the cotton crop to be shredded because of the inconsistent rain, and most producers expected to fail out their cotton this year. Winter wheat planting took place where possible to take advantage of the moisture, and emerged wheat looked good. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to good. Pastures showed a little green up, though in some areas the growth was mostly weeds. Livestock conditions were poor to good. Cooler temperatures improved consumption, and producers continued feeding livestock and wildlife. Fall calving was in full swing for some producers. The rain brought a slight increase in insects, especially flies. Feral hogs started tearing up some winter wheat, and bird hunters remained active.

West Central

The week started warm and dry and turned wet and cooler late, with lows in the 40s and highs in the 70s. Area-wide rain fell late in the week, with most locations receiving 1-4 inches. Topsoil moisture levels were short to surplus, while subsoil conditions were very short to adequate. More rain was needed. Cotton was in very poor to fair condition. Cotton harvest began, and some acres failed, with roughly 90% of the crop in some areas taken out for insurance purposes, and harvestable acres were expected to produce below-average yields. Winter wheat planting continued with decent emergence, and field preparation for small grain planting was underway. Pecan production was expected to be light with below-average yields. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to good. Warm-season grasses matured, cool-season grasses began to emerge, and the recent rain was expected to improve rangelands further. Livestock conditions were fair to good. Cattle held their condition and continued to improve with the rain. Fall cattle work continued, and some producers began supplemental feeding. Cattle markets moved higher with good demand. Stocker steers sold $3-$10 higher per hundredweight, and feeder steers were $6-$8 per hundredweight higher, while packer cows were $5 to $8 lower per hundredweight and packer bulls were steady.

Central

Rain fell across parts of the district late in the week, averaging about 1-1.5 inches where it came, while other areas received none. Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels were very short to surplus. Temperatures cooled into the 50s at the end of the week, with lows expected in the 30s over the weekend that could hamper small grains and bring frost to some areas. Dry vegetation continued to pose a wildfire risk. A tremendous number of small grain acres were planted, and the rain was expected to get those fields off to a good start. Weather was very favorable for planting. Oats and wheat were already drought-stressed elsewhere from a lack of rain since planting. Fall armyworms were present across parts of the district. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to good. Summer perennial grass pastures looked much better where rain fell. Stock tanks were replenished in some areas but remained lower than ideal in others. Livestock conditions were very poor to good. Cattle and other livestock remained in good body condition as producers continued to feed hay and other supplements.

Southeast

A cool front came through late in the week, bringing lower evening and morning temperatures along with a little rain. Topsoil moisture levels were short to surplus while subsoil conditions were very short to adequate. Recent rains improved soil moisture in parts of the district, though fire danger remained high where conditions stayed dry. Forage growth slowed, and producers planted winter forages. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to good. Livestock conditions were fair to good. Pasture mealybug activity appeared to be slowing.

Southwest

Cooler temperatures and gusty winds settled over the district. Rainfall was spotty, with some areas reporting 1.3-4 inches and others receiving no measurable precipitation. Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels were very short to adequate. Row crop harvests were complete. Winter wheat and oat planting and field preparations were in full swing in parts of the district, with wheat planting winding up in some areas, while producers elsewhere waited on rainfall before planting. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to good. Grass growth slowed as the district neared dormancy, and winter grasses began to emerge after the showers. Observations of King Ranch bluestem previously infested with pasture mealybug were mixed, with some patches coming back, with others dying out and the native grass seed bank taking over where stands did not return. Pasture mealybug was still present, but feeding had slowed. Livestock conditions were fair to good. Producers continued to supplement livestock diets with hay and feed, and cattle markets held steady. Deer were in good condition ahead of the gun season opener, though a heavy acorn drop limited visits to feeders.

Coastal Bend

A cold front blew in late in the week. Scattered showers continued in parts of the district, while other areas reported no measurable rain. Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels were very short to adequate. Wet conditions kept farmers out of fields for much of the week, though they worked fields that had dried, and most tasks were on schedule. All crops were out of the field. Gins were still running around the clock with several weeks left to completion, and cotton production for the year was turning out better than expected, though it was too early for accurate estimates. Pecan harvest continued, with reports that the crop was very poor this year. Winter pasture preparation and planting continued where good rainfall totals came in early October, while producers who received little rain waited on soil moisture before planting. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to good. Green-up was reported over most areas, but some pastures and fields were not responding. Hay producers made their last cutting over the weekend. Livestock conditions were very poor to good.

South

Temperatures were volatile through the week, cooling early, warming midweek, and dropping again behind a cool front. Morning lows averaged near 51 degrees with highs in the upper 80s in parts of the district. Most areas received no rainfall, though some reported trace amounts up to 1 inch with the front. Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels were very short to surplus. High winds elevated fire danger, and extreme drought persisted in parts of the district. Cotton was in fair to good condition, and harvest was finishing up. Late grain sorghum was harvested, and row crop producers resumed field tillage and controlled weeds. Field preparations for small grains increased, and plastic was laid down for strawberries. Producers planted winter crops including leafy greens, cabbage, wheat and oats, and fall planting began for other cool-season vegetables. Citrus harvest continued for navel oranges and grapefruit while other varieties continued to mature. Turfgrass was harvested. Pasture and rangeland conditions were poor to good. Pastures rebounded following earlier rainfall and provided ample grazing, though grass yield was expected to decline as nighttime temperatures dropped. Hay producers anticipated another cutting if consistent rainfall continued. Livestock conditions were fair to good. Cattle and deer producers supplemented with protein for livestock and wildlife, and elevated feed prices remained a concern. Cattle markets were mixed, with strong, steady demand at some auctions and higher prices for lighter weight calves at others, while two local markets reported declines. Producers slowed down on selling cows and calves. Wildlife appeared healthy and plentiful, with excellent fawn recruitment, strong quail populations, and above-average antler quality reported. Dove hunting was excellent over the weekend, and wildlife producers prepared for deer and quail season.