El Niño may bring higher chance of snow to North Texas this winter 

 

By Celeste Guajardo, KERA

 

This story is part of a partnership between KERA and Grist, a nonprofit environmental media organization.

 

This upcoming winter will likely bring about an unusually strong El Niño, a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that has worldwide impact on the weather.

For Texans, this will likely mean above average rainfall and below average temperatures.

“Historically, the cooler and wetter conditions during an El Niño have tended to increase seasonal snowfall totals in northern and western Texas,” said Texas State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon in a Railroad Commission notice to oil and gas operators.

Meanwhile for the rest of Texas, there is not a strong relationship between snowfall and El Niño.

“Of course, we also have enhanced chances of freezing rain, (but) most people don’t really look forward for that sort of thing,” said Nielsen-Gammon in an interview with KERA News.

Rainfall could help alleviate drought conditions, although it’s unlikely to eliminate drought completely, unless it’s exceptionally wet, but that could lead to catastrophic flooding. For example, the El Niño event in 1957-58 “saw historic floods that led to fatalities and devastating destruction,” wrote Joel Lisonbee, regional drought information coordinator for the National Integrated Drought Information system.

In any case, the rainfall will probably help the agricultural sector.

“Any rain we get will be beneficial for the upcoming growing season in the spring and summer,” said Nielsen-Gammon. “Farmers are going to be benefiting from essentially all the rainfall we can get between now and planting season, then they’ll be hoping for a break in the weather so they can actually work the fields.”

Water utilities with depleted aquifers may not have the same luck, explained NOAA research meteorologist Andrew Hoell.

“It may take several years in order to have that sustained precipitation in order to get that water back to a level where it normally is,” said Hoell.

Climate change and warming ocean temperatures are likely playing a role in how strong El Niño will be this winter. As Nielsen-Gammon notes, “the warming trend in place over the past several decades is expected to continue.”