Texas Poll: Talarico Maintains Small Lead Over Paxton
View online: https://reconmr.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/TXP004-October-Press-Release.pdf
US Senate: Talarico 48% Paxton 44% (from 49-43% in September)
Governor: Abbott 48% Hinojosa 47% (from Hinojosa 49-45% in September)
Congressional Generic Ballot: Dem 47% Rep 46% (from 46-47% in Sept)
Texans Oppose How ICE Agents Arrest People, 54-42%
56% of Voters Say Tactics Used by ICE ‘Have Gone Too Far’
State Representative James Talarico (D) continues to lead Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in the race for U.S.
Senate, 48-44%, little changed from 49-43% in September, according to a new poll of likely Texas voters
released today ReconMR. Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott and his Democratic opponent, State
Representative Gina Hinojosa, are separated by a single point, with Abbott up, 48-47%, after trailing Hinojosa
by four points, 45-49%, in September.
“A Texas Democrat has not won an election to the U.S. Senate since 1988. With less than a month until
Election Day, Talarico holds a small four-point lead over Paxton, 48-44%, after leading by six points last
month,” ReconMR Senior Research Analyst Lindsey Hendren said. “Not surprisingly, both candidates are
holding on to their partisan bases, as Talarico leads among Democrats 92-2% and Paxton leads among
Republicans 87-7%. Likely independent voters favor Talarico by two-to-one, 60-30%.”
If the election for Senator of Texas was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:
Total DEM REP IND/OTH
The Republican, Ken Paxton 44% 2% 87% 30%
The Democrat, James Talarico 48% 92% 7% 60%
Someone else/Wouldn’t vote 3% 1% 3% 3%
Don’t know/Refused 5% 5% 3% 7%
ReconMR Texas Poll – October 13, 2026
“Talarico holds a commanding 74-21% lead in Austin, but trails Paxton by 18 points in rural Texas. Talarico
still leads by 18 points in San Antonio/South Texas (56-38%); however, it’s down from his 33-point lead in
ReconMR Texas Poll Trends – October 2026 – Page 2
September. They are running virtually even in Houston and Talarico holds a slight advantage in Dallas-Fort
Worth,” Hendren said.
Talarico has a 48-43% favorability rating, down slightly from 50-39% in September, while Paxton has a
40-55% favorability rating, up slightly from 38-55% in September.
“Can Texas Democrats – with a lot of help from outside money – flip a Republican-held Senate seat? Maybe.
There’s still plenty of time between now and election day. The race for Senate will come down to three things:
turnout, turnout, turnout.”
Abbott Regains One-Point ‘Lead’
Abbott’s job approval rating remains underwater at 48-51%, a slight shift from 45-53% in September. His
favorability rating is 46-50%, from 45-53%. Hinojosa has a 44-37% favorability rating, with 20% not knowing
enough to have an opinion. In September, it was 48-27-25%.
“In an unusual predicament for the three-term governor, Abbott enters the final weeks of the campaign locked
in the tightest of battles with Hinojosa, leading her by a single point, 48-47%,” Hendren said. “The race remains
much more competitive than many anticipated earlier this year, or even just a few months ago. Abbott leads
among Republicans 92-5%, and Hinojosa leads 94-2% among Democrats and 57-34% among likely
independent voters. So while Hinojosa has work to do in becoming more known to voters, Abbott needs to cut
into Hinojosa’s lead among independent voters if he’s to have another term as Texas Governor.
If the election for Governor of Texas was held today, who would you
vote for if the candidates were:
Total DEM REP IND/OTH
The Republican, Greg Abbott 48% 2% 92% 34%
The Democrat, Gina Hinojosa 47% 94% 5% 57%
Someone else/Wouldn’t vote 2% 1% 1% 3%
Don’t know/Refused 3% 3% 1% 6%
ReconMR Texas Poll – October 13, 2026
“Abbott has a 25-point lead in rural Texas, while Hinojosa leads 75-22% in Austin, 52-44% in Houston, and 53-
42% in San Antonio/South. They’re tied at 48% among likely voters in Dallas-Fort Worth,” Hendren said.
ReconMR Texas Poll Trends – October 2026 – Page 3
ICE Not Faring Well with Likely Texas Voters
ICE’s favorability rating with voters is negative 43-53%. Voters oppose the way ICE is working to arrest
people: 54-42% and similarly 56% think ICE’s tactics have gone too far.
“When it comes to ICE,
partisanship informs views, with
independents siding more with
Democrats,” Hendren said.
“Democrats and independents
view ICE unfavorably, don’t
like the way they are working,
and think ICE tactics have gone
too far. Republicans say the exact opposite: they’re favorable toward ICE, support the way they are working,
and think tactics have been about right.”
Odds & Ends
➢ Voters are sour on the direction of the state and the country. By 50-39%, voters say the state of Texas is
headed in the wrong direction, rather than being on the right track. By an even larger 58-37%, voters
think the United States as a whole is headed in the wrong direction.
➢ The generic Congressional ballot remains too close to call. Currently, likely voters favor Democrats by
one point, 47-46%. In September, they favored Republicans by a point, 47-46%.
➢ Texas voters also favor Democrats – barely – over Republicans for control of the U.S. Senate by two
points, 49-47%.
➢ U.S. President Trump has a 44-54% favorability rating, unchanged from September. His job approval
rating is 45-54%, virtually unchanged from September. Currently, 49% say they strongly disapprove of
the job Trump is doing as President.
This ReconMR Texas Poll was conducted October 5 – 8, 2026, among 617 Texas Likely Voters. Of the 617 respondents, 617 were contacted
through a dual-frame (landline and cell phone) mode (217 completed via text-to-web). Telephone calls were conducted in English and Spanish
and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the voter listed on the voter file by name. Telephone sampling was conducted via a
stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns. The
landline telephone sample and the cell phone sample were obtained from the L2 Voter Database. Duplicate responses are identified by their
response ID and removed from the sample. Coding of open-ended responses was done by a single human coder. Data from collection modes
were weighted to balance sample demographics to match estimates for Texas’s population using data from L2’s state voter file, on party, age,
region, race/ethnicity, education, and gender to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points,
including the design effects resulting from weighting. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error, and there may be other
unmeasured error in this or any other public opinion poll.
ReconMR, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of
Professional Ethics and Practices. For crosstabs and TI disclosure elements, click here. For more information, email Lindsey Hendren at
Lindsey.Hendren@ReconMR.com.
Views on ICE
Total DEM REP IND/OTH
ICE Favorable 43% 1% 85% 31%
Unfavorable 53% 97% 13% 65%
Work to arrest
people
Support 42% 1% 84% 28%
Oppose 54% 99% 12% 67%
ICE tactics
Too far 56% 99% 16% 69%
Not far enough 11% 0% 23% 5%
About right 29% 0% 56% 22%
ReconMR Texas Poll – October 13, 2026
ReconMR Texas Poll Trends – October 2026 – Page 4
Texas Poll Trends – October 2026
Q. 1 Is Texas on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?
DATE RIGHT TRACK WRONG DIRECTION DON’T KNOW/NO OPINION
Oct 2026 39 50 11
Sept 2026 37 55 9
July 2026 44 49 7
June 2026 44 45 11
HIGHEST EVER 44 (7/26, 6/26) 55 (9/26) 11 (6/26, 10/26)
LOWEST EVER 37 (9/26) 45 (6/26) 7 (7/26)
Q. 2 Is the United States on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?
DATE RIGHT TRACK WRONG DIRECTION DON’T KNOW/NO OPINION
Oct 2026 37 58 5
Sept 2026 34 61 5
July 2026 37 58 5
June 2026 39 57 4
HIGHEST EVER 39 (6/26) 61 (9/26) 5 (9/26, 7/26)
LOWEST EVER 34 (9/26) 57 (6/26) 4 (6/26)
Q. 3 If the election for Senator of Texas was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were the Republican, Ken
Paxton, the Democrat, James Talarico, or someone else? (Names of candidates were rotated.)
OTHER/ DON’T KNOW/
DATE PAXTON TALARICO NO VOTE NO OPINION
Oct 2026 44 48 3 5
Sept 2026 43 49 4 4
July 2026 43 47 4 6
June 2026 46 46 4 5
HIGHEST EVER 46 (6/26) 49 (9/26) 4 (9/26, 7/26, 6/26) 6 (7/26)
LOWEST EVER 43 (9/26, 7/26) 46 (6/26) 3 (10/26) 4 (9/26)
Q. 4 If the election for your representative in Congress was held today, would you vote for the Democrat or the Republican?
(Names of parties were rotated.)
OTHER/ DON’T KNOW/
DATE DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN NO VOTE NO OPINION
Oct 2026 47 46 1 6
Sept 2026 46 47 1 6
July 2026 45 47 1 6
June 2026 43 49 1 7
HIGHEST EVER 47 (10/26) 49 (6/26) 1 (ALL) 7 (6/26)
LOWEST EVER 43 (6/26) 46 (10/26) 1 (ALL) 6 (10/26, 9/26, 7/26)
Q. 5 If the election for Governor of Texas was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were the Republican, Greg
Abbott, the Democrat, Gina Hinojosa, or someone else? (Names of candidates were rotated.)
OTHER/ DON’T KNOW/
DATE ABBOTT HINOJOSA NO VOTE NO OPINION
Oct 2026 48 47 2 3
Sept 2026 45 49 3 4
July 2026 46 45 4 5
June 2026 49 43 3 5
HIGHEST EVER 49 (6/26) 49 (9/26) 4 (7/26) 8 (9/26)
LOWEST EVER 45 (9/26) 43 (6/26) 2 (10/26) 3 (10/26)
ReconMR Texas Poll Trends – October 2026 – Page 5
Q. 6 Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Greg Abbott is doing as governor? FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or
somewhat?
STRONGLY SOMEWHAT SOMEWHAT STRONGLY DON’T KNOW/
DATE APPROVE APPROVE DISAPPROVE DISAPPROVE NO OPINION
Oct 2026 31 16 8 42 2
Sept 2026 28 17 7 46 2
July 2026 29 18 10 41 2
June 2026 27 23 10 38 3
HIGHEST EVER 31 (10/26) 23 (6/26) 10 (7/26, 6/26) 46 (9/26) 3 (6/26)
LOWEST EVER 27 (6/26) 16 (10/26) 7 (9/26) 38 (6/26) 2 (10/26, 9/26, 7/26)
Q. 7 Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Donald Trump is doing as President? FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or
somewhat?
STRONGLY SOMEWHAT SOMEWHAT STRONGLY DON’T KNOW/
DATE APPROVE APPROVE DISAPPROVE DISAPPROVE NO OPINION
Oct 2026 30 14 4 49 1
Sept 2026 31 13 6 49 1
July 2026 33 12 5 49 1
June 2026 33 15 5 47 1
HIGHEST EVER 33 (7/26, 6/26) 15 (6/26) 6 (9/26) 49 (10/26, 9/26, 7/26) 1 (ALL)
LOWEST EVER 30 (10/26) 12 (7/26) 4 (10/26) 47 (6/26) 1 (ALL)
Q. 8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about Greg Abbott?
DATE FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE DON’T KNOW/NO OPINION
Oct 2026 46 50 3
Sept 2026 45 53 3
July 2026 46 50 3
June 2026 46 48 6
HIGHEST EVER 46 (10/26, 7/26, 6/26) 53 (9/26) 6 (6/26)
LOWEST EVER 45 (9/26) 48 (6/26) 3 (10/26, 9/26, 7/26)
Q. 9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about Ken Paxton?
DATE FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE DON’T KNOW/NO OPINION
Oct 2026 40 55 5
Sept 2026 38 55 7
July 2026 40 52 9
June 2026 34 52 13
HIGHEST EVER 40 (10/26, 7/26) 55 (10/26, 9/26) 13 (6/26)
LOWEST EVER 34 (6/26) 52 (7/26, 6/26) 5 (10/26)
Q. 10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about Donald Trump?
DATE FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE DON’T KNOW/NO OPINION
Oct 2026 44 54 2
Sept 2026 44 53 3
July 2026 44 54 2
June 2026 45 51 4
HIGHEST EVER 45 (6/26) 54 (10/26, 7/26) 4 (6/26)
LOWEST EVER 44 (10/26, 9/26, 7/26) 51 (6/26) 2 (10/26, 7/26)
Q. 11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about James Talarico?
DATE FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE DON’T KNOW/NO OPINION
Oct 2026 48 43 9
Sept 2026 50 39 10
July 2026 46 39 15
June 2026 39 34 26
HIGHEST EVER 50 (9/26) 43 (10/26) 26 (6/26)
LOWEST EVER 39 (6/26) 34 (6/26) 9 (10/26)
ReconMR Texas Poll Trends – October 2026 – Page 6
Q. 12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about Gina Hinojosa?
DATE FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE DON’T KNOW/NO OPINION
Oct 2026 44 37 20
Sept 2026 48 27 25
July 2026 43 25 31
June 2026 31 18 52
HIGHEST EVER 48 (9/26) 37 (10/26) 52 (6/26)
LOWEST EVER 31 (6/26) 18 (6/26) 20 (10/26)
Q. 13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about ICE (the Federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency)?
DATE FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE DON’T KNOW/NO OPINION
Oct 2026 43 53 3
June 2026 45 50 5
HIGHEST EVER 45 (6/26) 53 (10/26) 5 (6/26)
LOWEST EVER 43 (10/26) 50 (6/26) 3 (10/26)
Q. 14 What is your preference for the outcome of this year’s U.S. Senate elections?
DATE REPUBLICAN CONTROL DEMOCRATIC CONTROL DON’T KNOW/NO OPINION
Oct 2026 47 49 3
Sept 2026 48 49 3
July 2026 47 49 4
HIGHEST EVER 48 (9/26) 49 (10/26, 9/26, 7/26) 4 (7/26)
LOWEST EVER 47 (10/26, 7/26) 49 (10/26, 9/26, 7/26) 3 (10/26, 9/26)
Q. 15 Regardless of who you are voting for, who do you think will win the election for the Senator of Texas?
DATE KEN PAXTON JAMES TALARICO DON’T KNOW/NO OPINION
Oct 2026 46 44 9
Sept 2026 45 48 7
HIGHEST EVER 46 (10/26) 48 (9/26) 9 (10/26)
LOWEST EVER 45 (9/26) 44 (10/26) 7 (9/26)
Q. 16 Regardless of who you are voting for, who do you think will win the election for the Governor of Texas?
DATE GREG ABBOTT GINA HINOJOSA DON’T KNOW/NO OPINION
Oct 2026 62 29 9
Sept 2026 62 32 6
HIGHEST EVER 62 (10/26, 9/26) 32 (9/26) 9 (10/26)
LOWEST EVER 62 (10/26, 9/26) 29 (10/26) 6 (9/26)
Q. 17 Do you support or oppose the way in which Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents, commonly known as ICE agents,
are working to arrest people they suspect of being immigrants living illegally in the United States?
IN THE DON’T KNOW/
DATE SUPPORT OPPOSE MIDDLE NO OPINION
Oct 2026 42 54 1 2
July 2026 41 53 4 1
HIGHEST EVER 42 (10/26) 54 (10/26) 4 (7/26) 2 (10/26)
LOWEST EVER 41 (7/26) 53 (7/26) 1 (10/26) 1 (7/26)
Q. 18 Thinking about the tactics used by ICE, do you think they have gone too far, not gone far enough or that they have been
about right?
GONE NOT GONE ABOUT DON’T KNOW/
DATE TOO FAR FAR ENOUGH RIGHT NO OPINION
Oct 2026 56 11 29 4
July 2026 57 11 29 2
HIGHEST EVER 57 (7/26) 11 (10/26, 7/26) 29 (10/26, 7/26) 4 (10/26)
LOWEST EVER 56 (10/26) 11 (10/26, 7/26) 29 (10/26, 7/26) 2 (7/26)
Poll Trend Notes:
Trends reflect questions asked at least twice since the first Texas Poll in June 2026.
“Highest Ever” and “Lowest Ever” are provided at the bottom of each question.