Pecan production, prices up in Texas as disease, dry weather loom

Texas growers did not issue an official forecast at their July conference, but the Tri-State Pecan Growers Association estimate put Texas production near 42 million pounds, Nesbitt said.

Production forecast rises, prices firm

Nesbitt estimated Texas’ overall yield at around 39 million pounds, up modestly from last year’s 32 million pounds.

Wholesale prices were better at times for the 2025 crop compared to 2023 and 2024, with some spring lots topping $2 a pound and approaching $3 a pound in the first quarter of 2026, Nesbitt said.

How the market opens for the 2026 crop depends on a number of moving parts. The volume of the early harvest realized by growers in Georgia, Louisiana and East Texas, as well as the quality of pecan kernels in those lots, will influence price points for the fall and early winter, he added.

Rising diesel, gasoline and fertilizer costs, combined with increased spraying requirements due to heavier disease and insect pressure are squeezing margins and raising the need for price support in the wholesale market.

More growers are turning to direct-to-consumer sales to capture better returns, a trend verified in a 2024 survey by the  Texas Pecan Growers Association, he said.

Nesbitt expects retail pecan prices to rise slightly this year alongside broader food inflation.

Wet spring fuels disease, dry summer stresses kernels

Every season can be a challenge for pecan growers, Nesbitt said. But it can also be great when conditions and management strategies align.

Trees bud in late March and aren’t harvested until October at the earliest, leaving a long season exposed to shifting weather, pests and disease across many Texas growing regions, he said.

An unusually wet spring in North, East and Central Texas left many orchards needing little irrigation into July, but the moisture also set conditions for pecan scab, a fungal disease that starts with small dark spots and can spread to blacken and drop shucks, Nesbitt said.

Growers also reported higher instances of downy spot and powdery mildew, both tied to the moisture, he said.

Dry conditions have since taken over across much of the state, with a hot, extremely dry spell arriving just as trees entered kernel fill, the critical August-to-September stage when the edible portion of the nut develops. It’s a time when tree water demand is highest.

“The dry weather we’re having now is impacting the development of kernel,” Nesbitt said. “Shriveled, malformed kernels can hide inside normal-looking shells.”

Texas pecan growers hope for good finish

Growers with reliable irrigation have a good chance of finishing the crop while those without water face some uncertainty, he said.

“August is the separating point where pecans can go well, or they go badly,” Nesbitt said.

Producers also faced above-normal insect pressure from pecan nut casebearer this season, he said. They can be the most devastating insect pest to a pecan orchard because their larvae burrow into nuts and feed on the kernel. Producers monitor their numbers closely and proactively control them.

Despite the challenges for individual orchards, Texas’ size and geographic diversity all but guarantee pockets of high-quality pecans somewhere in the state.

“Experience and overseeing our annual state pecan show makes me very confident that there are going to be good pecans in Texas in 2026,” Nesbitt said. “I don’t know where just yet, but somewhere in this state growers will put together the right combination of management decisions, overcome the weather challenges thrown at them, and their pecans will be really good.”

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Panhandle

Hot, dry conditions held across the district, with daytime highs above 100 degrees. Rain fell on a couple of days in some areas but was not significant enough to change conditions. Topsoil and subsoil moisture were very short to adequate. Corn, cotton and sorghum were all in very poor to fair condition. Sustained heat pushed early planted corn to full grain maturity and combines started harvest roughly a month ahead of normal. Elsewhere, producers were chopping a good deal of their corn because poor pollination and dry conditions left very little grain on the ears. Silage crews stayed active in corn and forage sorghum fields. Broadcast tillage was underway ahead of small grain planting, and grain drills were going into fields stripped for silage to establish cover and winter grazing. Cotton had set bolls on 60% to 100% of acres, with bolls just beginning to open. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to good, and livestock conditions were very poor to good.

South Plains

Extreme drought and triple-digit heat continued, with hot winds compounding crop stress. A small-but-heavy shower dropped about 1.5 inches over a limited area, and brief showers fell elsewhere, but the moisture did not relieve the ongoing drought. Topsoil and subsoil moisture were very short to short. Cotton and corn were in very poor to fair condition, and sorghum conditions were very poor to good. Most dryland cotton had failed in some areas, and irrigated fields were shedding squares and small bolls. Irrigation was helping crop progress less and less. Corn grain and silage harvest continued, with choppers running when humidity levels were right, and dried corn was being swathed for hay. Sorghum that failed was being baled, and hay was bringing a premium because native grasses were gone. Potato harvest wrapped up, and pumpkin harvest began. Wheat and forage planting started, with preplant irrigation on fallow ground in hopes of building a soil profile for winter. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to fair, and livestock conditions held fair to good.

Rolling Plains

Another week of temperatures well over 100 degrees each day, paired with drying south winds and left crops and pastures struggling. A light shower cooled things briefly in some areas and a better rain fell in others, giving producers a start on wheat ground preparation, but 10 more days of triple digits were in the forecast. Topsoil and subsoil moisture were very short to short. Storms that built north of the district brought wind and lightning that sparked fires, and sporadic grass fires were reported in several areas. Stock tanks were drying up, and ranchers were moving cattle to find adequate water. Pasture and rangeland were very poor to fair, and livestock conditions ranged from very poor to good. Grass reserves dwindled to the point that producers were feeding hay and cake earlier than planned, with hay running about $50 per round bale though quality varied. Some calves were expected to move to market soon, and there was talk of cows going with them. Wildlife food plots were beginning to struggle. Corn harvest was complete, and most cotton acres had set bolls.

North

Topsoil and subsoil moisture were very short to adequate. Consistent 100-degree days pushed the district deeper into drought, with a rapid decline in all non-irrigated vegetation, including crops, pastures and trees. Burn bans covered nearly the entire district, and two grass fires, both under 5 acres, broke out in one area. Pond levels fell sharply and stock water sources were drying up quickly. Corn was in good to excellent condition, with soybeans and sorghum fair to good. Corn harvest finished much better than expected, and yields were excellent. Soybean yields were among the best seen in years, though late-planted soybeans were not setting pods. Sorghum also outperformed expectations on the limited acres planted. Okra, peppers and sweet potatoes stayed productive where irrigation was available. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to fair, and livestock were in fair to good condition as producers began feeding hay.

East

Drought conditions worsened, with daily highs in the 100s, overnight lows in the 70s and burn bans still in force. Rainfall was scattered and light, ranging from nothing to about 1 inch in a few locations. Topsoil and subsoil moisture were very short to adequate. Ponds, creeks, lakes and rivers were all low; several stock ponds had dried up, and some producers were hauling water to livestock. There were reports of fish die-offs in stock ponds as water levels dropped and temperatures climbed. Hay production came to a halt in much of the district, and some producers managed only one cutting all season. Most gardens were finished, though some people were preparing fall gardens and food plots. Pasture and rangeland were very poor to good, and livestock conditions were very poor to excellent. Some producers started selling younger calves to cut nutritional demand on their cows. Cattle markets took a hard hit at one sale barn, where feeder calves dropped $15-$30 per hundredweight and slaughter cattle fell $20 per hundredweight. Markets were mixed elsewhere: calves sold mostly $5-$10 per hundredweight lower at one auction while feeder steers and heifers were higher at another.

Far West

Above-average temperatures persisted, with heat advisories, dry winds and very low humidity across much of the district. Topsoil and subsoil moisture were very short to adequate. In the Big Bend area, temperature highs reached the mid- to upper-90s in the upper elevations and well over 100 degrees along the river. Rainfall was spotty and light — about 0.5 of an inch in some areas, trace amounts in others. Cotton was in very poor to good condition and stayed stressed day and night in many areas. The first cotton bolls on dryland, and early planted irrigated fields were opening prematurely. Corn and sorghum harvests were nearly complete. Corn yields were outstanding while sorghum yields were very disappointing. Melon harvest finished for the season with good yields, quality and prices. In the El Paso area, growers were limited to effluent and well water, cotton and pecans needed irrigation, and alfalfa producers could manage only about one irrigation between cuttings. Conditions in the Pecos area were an exception, with hay fields in great condition, pastures holding in good shape and crops improving. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to good, and some pastures were bare in the drier areas. Cattle were being fed, and beef producers began fall weaning and shipping. Livestock were in poor to good condition.

West Central

Hot, dry and windy conditions gripped the district, with highs above 100 degrees every day and no relief in the 10-day forecast. Thunderstorms popped up in parts of the district, delivering trace amounts to 0.5 inch in some areas and up to 2.5 inches in a few areas. Topsoil and subsoil moisture were very short to adequate. Fire danger was extreme, with heavy fuel loads left over from spring and early summer rainfall. Two wildfires of 100-150 acres broke out early in the week and were quickly brought under control. Cotton was in very poor to fair shape, showing heat stress and limited growth. Sorghum conditions were mostly poor to fair. Pecan orchards were holding their own, though supplemental water was important during nut filling. Producers lacked the moisture to prepare wheat ground. Pasture and rangeland were very poor to good, and livestock conditions were poor to excellent. Hay production slowed, and pastures were brown and wilting. Small stock tanks were getting low and muddy for livestock. One sale barn reported lower prices across most classes, including lighter weight stocker steers $10-$18 lower per hundredweight, medium and heavy stocker steers $5-$10 lower per hundredweight and lighter stocker heifers were $12-$15 lower per hundredweight. Pairs and bred cows sold steady and were in good demand.

Central

Daily highs had topped 100 degrees nearly every day for the month, and some areas recorded no precipitation over that span. Light rain arrived late in the reporting period in parts of the district, ranging from trace amounts to half an inch with most locations that received moisture. Topsoil moisture was very short to adequate while subsoil conditions ranged from very short to surplus. Several small grass fires broke out. Corn harvest was wrapping up with average to above-average yields – 100-w180 bushels per acre – from fields that avoided hail and freeze damage earlier in the season. Harvest slowed in places as grain storage filled. Sorghum harvest concluded, with yields of 6,000-8,000 pounds per acre. Cotton harvest had begun on a limited basis and was expected to ramp up. Cotton defoliation was slowed by the hot, dry weather, and applications were prolonging the start of harvest, though a heavy fruit load had producers expecting about a bale and a half per acre. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to fair, and livestock conditions were poor to excellent. Pasture mealybug cut into hay volume enough that producers were concerned about shortages, and producers were actively spraying pastures to control the pest. Stock tank levels declined drastically over the past few weeks, and livestock were crowding shade trees and ponds that still held water. Ranchers were preparing and planting winter forage for stocker operations. Many started feeding hay and supplements, and some who had planned to market calves early were holding them to see where prices settle.

Southeast

An extreme heat index and the absence of rainfall pushed the district further into drought, and burn bans were issued across most counties. A pop-up shower late in the week helped one part of the district, and reporters were watching a tropical disturbance for additional moisture. Topsoil and subsoil moisture were very short to adequate. Grass stopped growing and rapidly turned brown. Corn was in fair to excellent condition, and rice looked good to excellent. Row crop harvest continued, with cotton harvest underway, and yields looked good and quality was good to excellent. Rice harvest was well underway, but yields were down. Pasture and rangeland were very poor to good, and livestock conditions held fair to excellent. Pasture mealybug damage continued in native and improved grasses, and producers also reported Bermuda grass stem maggot, fall armyworms and grasshoppers. Love bugs were the worst some reporters had ever seen.

Southwest

Hot, dry weather dominated the week before isolated storms arrived. Rainfall was very spotty, with reports ranging from trace amounts up to 2 inches in some areas. Topsoil and subsoil moisture were very short to adequate. Storms brought high winds that damaged structures and barns. Stock ponds were drying up again. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to good, and livestock conditions were fair to good. Pastures turned brown under the extreme heat and wind, and warm-season forage growth stalled. Pasture mealybug damaged a large portion of pastures and populations increased in several areas, though the combination of control activities by producers and hot, dry conditions appeared to slow them in irrigated and dryland Bermuda grass. Pecan scab was showing up as nuts formed, and webworms were abundant as pecans matured. Corn was in fair to excellent condition and cotton conditions were fair to good. Corn harvest was complete in parts of the district and delayed elsewhere by a shortage of bin space, while grain sorghum harvest wrapped up with average to slightly above-average yields reported. Gardeners abandoned most spring plantings and set out fall crops. Wildlife pressure at feed pens increased as native nutrition grew scarce.

Coastal Bend

Hot, dry conditions persisted, and crop, range and pasture conditions continued to deteriorate, though some areas caught rain during the week. Topsoil and subsoil moisture were very short to adequate. Late planted sorghum, corn and cotton were very inconsistent, with some fields complete failures while others held their own. Cotton harvest advanced across the district and was winding down in places, with one area expecting to finish within days and others looking at weeks remaining if the weather holds. Late-planted acres received their first shot of defoliant, and plants were slow to defoliate. Late planting, heat stress and inadequate stands left bolls slow to mature and open. Some cotton showed damage and reduced quality from the flooding rains earlier in the growing season. Corn and rice harvests neared completion. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to good, and livestock conditions were fair to excellent. Hay baling was slow with little growth in the heat, and producers were hoping for a fall rain to get one more cutting. Pasture mealybug infestations were heavy in much of the district, and forage producers were consulting on control recommendations. Fall calves were hitting the ground and looked good, and livestock were still finding decent forage. Pecan trees continued to shed nuts.

South

Temperatures climbed above 100 degrees throughout the week with no measurable rainfall across most of the district. Isolated thunderstorms crossed parts of the district without producing measurable accumulation and nighttime temperatures began to ease. Topsoil and subsoil moisture were very short to adequate. Dry fuel raised grass fire risk, particularly where standing grass had gone ungrazed, and multiple wildfire incidents were reported. Much of the Lower Rio Grande Valley remained in severe drought, and some areas were approaching extreme conditions. Most of the cotton crop had been harvested. A few late-planted fields were being defoliated and were days from picking, while cotton bolls were opening and harvest continued elsewhere. Sorghum harvest was underway and peanuts progressed under irrigation. Sesame harvest continued, and producers who finished row crops moved on to field preparation and tillage. Citrus orchards and hay meadows were irrigated where water was available. Livestock, pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to good. Producers stepped up livestock diet supplementation with hay and cubes, hauled water to livestock and wildlife. Hay sold for $65 to $100 per round bale depending on quality. Cattle prices declined and appeared to be stabilizing, with 500-pound steers averaging $4.65 per pound in May at $3.25 per pound this week at one market. Producers were early weaning calves as needed. Herds were culled hard, and volumes offered locally were well below average. Pasture mealybug management and New World screwworm monitoring continued. Fall beef calving was underway. Hunters were arriving ahead of the Sept. 1 dove season opener.