Texas wheat: More problems than bright spots this year

Sporadic rainfall around planting allowed for good and quick establishment in some areas, while drought conditions prevented germination until February in others, said Brandon Gerrish, AgriLife Extension statewide small grains specialist and assistant professor in the Department of Soil and Crop Sciences. Viral diseases such as wheat streak and triticum mosaic viruses also were prevalent across the region later in the season.

“Over 90% of the harvest is in, with the only remaining acres in the northern Panhandle,” Gerrish said. “There were many more problems than bright spots this year and yields were lower in just about every area of the state, including irrigated acres in the High Plains.”

Only a few bright spots this year

Gerrish said fields around the Dallas-Fort Worth area supported the best non-irrigated wheat in the state this year, along with a small area near Brady that also performed very well.

“Even areas with decent fall precipitation began showing drought symptoms by mid-February and much of the dryland wheat acres in the High Plains and Rolling Plains regions failed by the end of a very hot and dry March, with temperatures reaching 100 degrees in some areas,” he said.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service, the Texas wheat harvest was estimated to be 89% complete on July 5, with only 35% of the crop reported in fair or better condition.

A total of 1.6 million acres is expected to be harvested for grain. That represents only 29% of the 5.5 million acres planted across the state. This is the lowest harvested acreage in Texas since 1.3 million acres in 2022. The latest crop production report forecast Texas wheat production at 45 million bushels, with an average yield of 28 bushels per acre.

Market prices

The USDA Risk Management Agency announced the 2026 harvest price for conventional winter wheat in Texas and Oklahoma at $6.28 per bushel, said Mark Welch, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist-grain marketing in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics. That is up from $5.37 per bushel last year.

Recent wheat markets have been paying $5.20 to $5.90 per bushel. This is a drop from the historic highs over $11 per bushel seen following the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, but up from last year’s June average Texas cash wheat price of $4.44 per bushel. With higher input prices, especially fertilizer and fuel, tight margins are a persistent concern for wheat growers, Welch said.

Wheat conditions varied around the state

High Plains

Drought and heat stress as well as viral infections plagued wheat in the High Plains. Winter conditions were mild followed by a hot and dry spring with some areas of the Panhandle reaching 100 degrees in late March. April and May brought some rainfall, however, the entire High Plains region remained in moderate to exceptional drought.

While irrigation ensured crop survival, many growers expressed disappointing irrigation responses on wheat. Symptoms of wheat streak mosaic and triticum mosaic viruses appeared in March, with farmers reporting a much higher incidence compared to average seasons.

Rolling Plains

Drought greatly reduced yield potential across the region. One exception was near Brady, which managed to remain off the drought monitor and supported some of the best wheat yields seen in a while in that area, Gerrish said.

Widespread rainfall in early April was too late; the damage had already been done. Leaf rust incidence was moderate, mostly occurring in the southern part of the region. Viral diseases such as wheat streak and barley yellow dwarf viruses were also present and caused significant damage in select fields.

Blacklands

The Blacklands region faired significantly better overall with areas surrounding Dallas-Fort Worth supporting some of the best non-irrigated wheat in the state. Rainfall delayed harvest throughout the region, which also resulted in preharvest sprouting and low grain test weights.

Leaf rust pressure in the southern and central parts of the region and widespread Hessian fly infestations caused heavy damage in some fields. Gerrish said the possibility of increased Hessian fly pressure next year should prompt growers to select at least one resistant variety to plant this fall.

South Texas

Drought, high temperatures and high disease pressure left the major wheat producing areas of South Texas in extreme drought conditions most of the season. Warm winter conditions resulted in about 50% chilling hours compared to the five-year average and many winter wheat varieties displayed at least partial vernalization issues as a result.

Leaf rust pressure was significant in irrigated fields, and heavy Hessian fly infestations were also a problem in some areas.

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Panhandle

Hot, dry and windy conditions dominated the district; afternoon temperatures exceeded 100 degrees in some areas. Rainfall was scarce and highly localized, with one county reporting 0.6 of an inch, bringing its yearly total to 2.51 inches. Drought conditions intensified, and much of the district slipped further into moderate to severe drought categories. Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels ranged from very short to adequate. Evapotranspiration climbed sharply as feed grains and cotton crops transitioned from vegetative to reproductive growth. Conditions strained soil moisture reserves and irrigation systems. Some producers were nearing decisions to terminate irrigation on portions of their acres to salvage the remainder. Pasture and rangeland were in very poor to good condition. Cattle were receiving hay with deeper culling or liquidation likely for many producers if rain does not come soon.

South Plains

Scattered showers moved across parts of the district, with reports ranging from a trace to 1.25 inches, but most areas received too little to reverse ongoing drought stress. Cracks in the ground continued to widen in some counties, and producers were watching forecasts closely as another chance of rain and slightly cooler temperatures approached. Irrigated corn looked good and early corn was near pollination, while dryland cotton and sorghum lagged. Cotton fruit retention was holding at about 90% with low pest populations, though corn leafhopper was confirmed in one field at very low levels. High winds earlier in the reporting period blasted some cotton fields and set the crop back. Weeds remained the most pressing issue, particularly where herbicide programs had been interrupted by sporadic rain. Livestock were in fair to good condition, and pasture and rangeland ranged from very poor to fair.

Rolling Plains

Hot, windy and mostly dry conditions continued to grip the district, with 100-degree days accelerating stress on crops and pastures. Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels ranged from very short to adequate. Scattered showers fell in a few areas, but hail accompanied rain in the southern portions of the district and set cotton and peanut crops back further. Cotton emerged unevenly and, in some areas, showed little progress under the heat. Producers were giving up on Sudan grass plantings in some places due to lack of moisture. Sorghum fields began showing afternoon moisture stress, and armyworm activity was reported. Pastures continued to decline, and livestock diets were being supplemented in several counties. Pasture and rangeland ranged from very poor to good.

North

Temperatures hovered around 100 degrees with high humidity across much of the district, and 1-4 inches of rain fell in some areas over the weekend. Corn was drying down rapidly, and harvest was expected to start early, while soybeans looked strong and were blooming and setting pods. Sorghum aphids were showing up in grain sorghum, and armyworms were spotted in isolated areas. Hay harvest was active, with good yields but some quality losses were tied to maturity at cutting. Producers harvested grapes and blackberries, watermelons, okra and figs with tomatoes and peppers still producing, squash tapering off and peach, plum and pear harvests wrapping up. Feral hogs were active in some areas, and drought was creeping into parts of the district that missed the recent rains. Livestock conditions were fair to excellent, and pasture and rangeland ranged from poor to excellent.

East

Rainfall was highly uneven, with some areas picking up 1-3.5 inches while storms missed other areas entirely. Grazing and forages were browning up where rain was scarce, and regrowth after hay cutting had stalled in drier pockets. Elsewhere, pastures and hay fields remained in excellent shape, with many producers well into a second cutting. Bermuda stem maggot and armyworm infestations were reported in hay fields, and pasture mealybug had producers worried across several counties. Livestock markets stayed exceptionally strong with prices steady to higher. Livestock were in fair to excellent condition, and pasture and rangeland were in poor to excellent condition.

Far West

Hot, windy conditions with daytime highs in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees prevailed across much of the district, though scattered showers brought relief to some areas and heavier rain was expected in parts of the district. Cotton conditions were mixed, with some irrigated fields blooming and dryland fields struggling to square. Melon harvest continued in some areas, with yields picking up as second pickings began on many fields. In the El Paso area, cotton was thriving on quality river irrigation water that was expected to end soon. Pecans looked healthy despite minor stinkbug pressure, and alfalfa production was favorable. Grain sorghum was in good condition, with most fields headed and earlier planted irrigated fields beginning to color. Pastures were declining in some areas as cattle worked through remaining grazing from earlier rains, and supplemental feeding was beginning to pick up. Producers continued monitoring for New World screwworm. Livestock were in poor to good condition, and topsoil and subsoil moisture ranged from very short to adequate.

West Central

Hot, dry conditions dominated most of the district, with highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees drying out pastures and stressing crops. Rainfall was spotty. Parts of the district recorded 0.25-2 inches, and one county reported microbursts delivering between 0.6-4.25 inches in localized spots. Cotton was in mostly fair condition but faltering in some counties as heat and moisture stress mounted. Some forage sorghum was being harvested for hay, and hay producers were finishing first cuttings. Land preparation for wheat field fertilization and planting continued. Pasture mealybug infestations were verified in parts of the district. Pasture and rangeland ranged from very poor to excellent, and livestock conditions ranged from poor to excellent, with the best cattle conditions where grazing remained strong.

Central

Hot, dry conditions with strong south winds continued across the district. A few areas caught 0.5-1 inch of rain over the weekend with more expected. Corn dried down rapidly, corn silage harvest wrapped up, and limited grain harvest operations began. Sorghum approached maturity, and sorghum aphid populations were a concern. Cotton progressed nicely with all fields blooming and setting bolls, though a short bloom cycle from the dry weather pushed many fields to or near cutout. Stink bugs and spider mites were the primary cotton pest concerns, with some fields already being treated for stink bugs. Hay was being cut and baled, and pasture mealybug was reported in multiple counties. Ponds were dropping in some areas, with signs of fish kill in the driest spots. Fire danger climbed as vegetation cured out. Livestock were in poor to good condition, and pasture and rangeland ranged from very poor to good.

Southeast

Midsummer heat and high humidity gripped the district, with rainfall arriving late in the reporting period in many areas and heavy rain in the forecast. Corn and sorghum harvests started in some counties but were halted by wet weather. Rice was progressing and getting close to harvest, though uneven maturity was expected to affect quality. Hay cutting resumed in several counties during the dry window, but many producers had still not baled a first cutting. Pasture mealybug damage continued across Bahia, Bermuda and Tifton pastures and hay fields. Livestock were in fair to excellent condition, and pasture and rangeland were in fair to excellent condition.

Southwest

Scattered rainfall brought relief across much of the district, with some areas receiving 1.25-2 inches and pockets picking up as much as 5 inches. Pastures and rangelands greened up where rain fell, though drier areas slowed on forage growth. Hay production continued between showers, and summer calving cows were beginning to drop calves in some herds. Pasture mealybug infestations were prevalent and limiting forage for livestock. New World screwworm remained a major focus, with travel restrictions weighing on producers. Livestock conditions were fair to good, and pasture and rangeland were in poor to good condition. Whitetail buck antler growth looked strong, and the fawn crop was described as robust. A wildfire burned 1,370 acres of rangeland in one county.

Coastal Bend

Rainfall returned to parts of the district after a dry stretch, with two-day rain events saturating ground in some counties while other areas stayed hot and dry. Grain sorghum harvest was underway, though wet, humid conditions caused head sprouting and molding in some fields. Corn harvest was starting in some areas but stalled elsewhere as grain moisture tests were still too high for combining. Cotton was progressing, with early planted fields receiving first defoliation applications and more acres expected to follow in the coming week. Continued wetness had hurt some cotton fields. Hay production was in full swing between rain events, with many bales already put up. Pasture mealybug was inflicting significant damage, and producers were spraying with limited labeled control options. Bermuda grass stem maggot and fall armyworms were also hitting hay fields. Livestock stayed in fair to excellent condition, and pasture and rangeland ranged from poor to excellent.

South

Hot, humid conditions dominated the district, with scattered showers delivering trace amounts up to 6 inches in the wettest spots. Extreme heat and high humidity persisted across much of the district. Corn harvest was underway with good early yield reports, and grain sorghum harvest was in full swing, though later-planted sorghum was just beginning to color. Cotton progressed well in the drier, warmer weather with most fields having open bolls and some later-planted fields still developing; lower bolls in some areas showed damage from earlier rains. Peanuts continued to progress in the pegging stage under irrigation. Sesame and citrus were also progressing. Hay producers put up large numbers of round bales under ideal curing conditions. Pasture mealybug damage was widespread and evident along roadsides in some counties. New World screwworm remained an active concern. Cattle futures softened somewhat, but cash prices remained firm across all classes with strong demand for replacement cows and heifers. Wildlife continued to recover from winter drought, with fawns hitting the ground and a second hatch of quail reported. Livestock were in fair to excellent condition, and pasture and rangeland ranged from very poor to good.