GasBuddy Projects Second Most Expensive July 4 at the Pump Despite Six Weeks of Declines
National average price of gasoline on July 4 projected at $3.75/gal; on track for second most expensive Independence Day at the pump ever
(June 25, 2026, DALLAS) – GasBuddy, the fuel savings platform empowering drivers to choose their road to savings, today released its 2026 Independence Day gas price forecast, projecting the national average price of gas will fall to approximately $3.75 per gallon on July 4 – the second most expensive Independence Day on record behind the all-time high of $4.80 on July 4, 2022.
The projection comes despite six consecutive weeks of national average declines following a spring spike driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure. The recent U.S.-Iran framework agreement has helped ease supply fears and pull prices lower, but the accord remains fragile and risks to the upside are significant. However, with the U.S. Department of Treasury authorizing the sale of oil by Iran, oil prices recently fell below $70/bbl, which may help consumers see lower prices, faster, with global inventories benefitting from the additional oil.
“Six weeks of declines sounds like good news, and in some ways it is, but the context matters,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “At roughly $3.75, this would be the second most expensive July 4 ever recorded, roughly 65 cents higher than last year and nearly $1 above where prices started in 2026. The U.S.-Iran agreement gives markets hope, but it’s being tested, and any breakdown in those talks could reverse the recent relief quickly. Drivers should use every tool available to find the lowest prices near them before filling up.”
While the projected $3.75 per gallon average represents a dramatic improvement from May’s peak of $4.57, it still marks roughly a 65-cent increase from last July 4’s $3.10 per gallon average, and a stark reminder of how significantly the Strait of Hormuz closure reshaped the price environment for 2026. Americans will spend hundreds of millions more on gasoline this July 4 holiday weekend compared to last year. Only 2022’s record spike, driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and pandemic-era demand surges, has produced a more expensive Independence Day at the pump.
July 4 gas prices over the last 5 years:
•2021: $3.12/gal
•2022: $4.80/gal (record high)
•2023: $3.46/gal
•2024: $3.49/gal
•2025: $3.10/gal
•2026: ~$3.75/gal (projected)
To save money on summer road trips, GasBuddy recommends drivers utilize the GasBuddy app to shop around for the best prices, especially near state lines where prices can vary drastically. Drivers can also sign up for a Pay with GasBuddy+ membership to save a guaranteed 3 cents per gallon on every fill-up and up to 33 cents when combined with Deal Alerts. Visit gasbuddy.com/pay for more information.
About GasBuddy
GasBuddy is the savings platform that empowers drivers to choose their road to savings. With over 150 million downloads, industry-leading real-time fuel price data, rewards and discounts that go further than gas, and the Pay with GasBuddy+ membership program, GasBuddy is reshaping everyday savings and mobility. Owned and operated by PDI Technologies, GasBuddy connects top brands with millions of digitally engaged consumers—wherever the road takes them—by unlocking data and insights into purchase patterns through a frictionless experience. To learn more about GasBuddy, visit gasbuddy.com.
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SOURCE GasBuddy