By Jim “Pappy” Moore
Bitcoin’s market cap is $365 billion.
Every day through Bitcoin mining operations 900 new Bitcoins are created.
These are either held by those doing the mining or sold by those doing the mining.
Assume that those mining are mostly selling the Bitcoin.
At today’s market rates, the new Bitcoin are being bought at roughly $18,900 each.
If someone or some group of Bitcoin holders wanted to do so, they could buy every newly created Bitcoin at $18,900 each for one full year for just over $6 billion.
Now, wouldn’t doing so be a smart thing to do in order to stop Bitcoin from falling below $18,000 each? Imagine if those 900 new Bitcoin hit the market daily and they only garnered $14,000 each? What would that do to value of the Bitcoin being held by the biggest holders of Bitcoin? Do you see why they would be inclined to protect their Bitcoin value by buying up the new Bitcoin at a price which stopped the erosion of Bitcoin?
I believe this is taking place. I watch the Bitcoin numbers daily. Someone is trying to maintain a floor of $18,000/$19,000. Over 2/3 of Bitcoin have not moved from their owner in over a year. This means the trades are happening among the other 1/3 holders of Bitcoin. It stands to reason that those creating Bitcoin through mining have expenses they must meet, so they convert their pay – the Bitcoin – to cash by selling them. As long as whales (huge owners) buy them up at $19,000 or so each, they’ll keep making them.
Bitcoin is ordained to stop creating Bitcoin at 21 million Bitcoin. That will happen in 2024. Once that happens, the value of each Bitcoin is supposed to increase since there is a finite number of them. Unlike fiat currency, their numbers cannot be increased. Unlike precious metals, there will not be new ones to keep the value down of the naturally occurring metal. This is supposed to make Bitcoin soar in value. But what if the value of Bitcoin is an illusion created by those who hold massive amounts which they acquired when it was much cheaper? As long as the whales can use their Bitcoin wealth to buy newly created Bitcoins at $19,000 each that creates a false sense of value.
Bitcoin went to $65,000 each in the past two years and has fallen back to below $20,000 each. It’s a sum zero game. Some won big and some lost big.
I believe there is a scheme in place to keep the suckers buying and holding. As long as they keep the value near $20,000, suckers will be inclined to hang on, especially if they have already held on after buying at a higher number.
The spiel they use is that Bitcoin will be inflation proof, but so far that appears not to be true. One would think if that were so, Bitcoin would be increasing in value as inflation is high. Instead, Bitcoin seems to be following the stock markets, not departing from them, not outperforming them.
Where do you go when you when the whales sell-off and the value of Bitcoin tumbles? What happens to a Ponzi Scheme when there aren’t enough new suckers buying into the “investment” scheme?
Bitcoin seems to rely on the notion that new players to the game will always appear to shore up value. What happens when they don’t?
Copyright 2022, Jim “Pappy” Moore. All rights reserved.