Steady pork supplies signal bargains for consumers, puzzle for producers

U.S. pork production is up 1.3% so far this year compared to 2025, though output has eased about half a percent over the past four weeks, said David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics. Even with supplies holding steady, hog prices have not kept pace with last year’s levels, leaving what Anderson calls a pricing conundrum.

Farrow-to-finish producers have logged 25 straight months of profitability, according to an Iowa State University model Anderson tracks, a sharp turnaround from 2023-2024, when losses reached as much as $50 per head in the worst months. This year’s profits, which have ranged from about $2.60 to $52 per head, have been driven mostly by cheaper feed and corn rather than strong hog prices.

“We’re producing about the same amount of pork as we did last year, yet prices have really lagged behind,” Anderson said. “We haven’t seen the increase, and it’s kind of a conundrum.”

Seasonal swings drive hog and wholesale prices

Pork production and prices typically follow a predictable seasonal rhythm, Anderson said. Output is lowest in the summer, when heat makes it harder for hogs to gain weight, and highest in the fall and early in the year.

National hog prices reflected that seasonal climb last week, averaging roughly 97 cents a pound compared to about $1.07 per pound, a year ago.

Wholesale cuts showed the same seasonal price increases, though year-over-year comparisons varied by cut. Spareribs brought $1.74 per pound last week, up from $1.65 per pound a year ago, though down from $1.96 per pound six weeks earlier. Pork bellies, driven by bacon demand, jumped to $1.93 per pound from $1.46 per pound just six weeks ago but remained below last year’s $2.13 per pound. Pork loins climbed to $1.11 per pound from $1.04 per pound six weeks ago, but still lower than last year’s $1.16 per pound.

“Hog prices have surged in the last few weeks as production has come down a little,” Anderson said. “But it’s still not where it was a year ago.”

Pork holds its value against beef

At the grocery store, pork remains a middle-ground option — pricier than chicken, but far cheaper than beef, Anderson said. The July Consumer Price Index showed retail pork averaging $4.89 per pound, down from $5.01 per pound a year ago. Beef, meanwhile, climbed to $10.49 per pound from $9.69 per pound, and chicken slipped to $2.01 per pound from $2.08 per pound.

Anderson said the pork industry continues to search for new marketing positions beyond mainstays like bacon and sausage for breakfast.

Products like ground pork increasingly sit alongside ground beef, turkey and chicken, and there continues to be a boom in sausages within Texas barbecue, as well as charcuterie and other smoked pork products, Anderson said. High beef prices are squeezing margins at barbecue restaurants, pushing many to lean harder on chicken and pork offerings. But pork still lacks a fast-food staple to rival the chicken sandwich or tenders or the hamburger, limiting its reach in the restaurant world.

Sow herd keeps shrinking even as output grows

Despite more than two years of profitability, producers have not expanded their herds.

The nation’s sow herd has declined for years, Anderson said. Production gains are instead coming from record numbers of pigs born per litter and heavier carcass weights — barrow and gilt dressed weights averaged 211 pounds last week, up from 209 pounds a year ago.

The lack of production growth is largely because building new sow facilities means taking on high construction and financing costs, he said.

“Those profits have not translated to increased production,” Anderson said. “If I’m going to expand my sow herd, I’ve got to build more buildings, and that gets into concrete, steel and interest rates.”

Mexico anchors exports as China trade slows

Exports continue to help solidify overall demand for U.S. pork. About 20% to 30% of pork produced ends up on the global market.

Overall pork exports are running ahead of last year, buoyed by stronger sales to Japan, Anderson said. But exports to China have “really suffered” amid tariffs, retaliatory tariffs and export-plant approval issues. The U.S. shipped just 23.1 million pounds of pork to China in June, down from 36.7 million pounds a year earlier and well below the five-year average of 78.9 million pounds for the month.

Mexico has emerged as the dominant buyer, importing 226 million pounds of U.S. pork in June, compared to 87 million pounds by Japan and 33.4 million pounds by Canada. That marks a shift from 2020 and 2021, when China was the top market for U.S. pork as African swine fever devastated its domestic herd.

“Mexico has become a hugely important market for us as exports to China dipped,” Anderson said. “But exports continue to be a big part of the pie for us.”

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Panhandle

Hot, dry and windy conditions dominated the district, with daytime temperatures reaching 100 degrees or higher on most days. Topsoil and subsoil moisture ranged from very short to adequate. Dryland crops failed in several areas, and pasture conditions continued to decline. Late-evening thunderstorms delivered small, scattered showers in some counties, offering brief overnight cooling benefiting crops midway through their reproductive stage. Forage chopper activity increased in irrigated corn and sorghum fields as heat stress, disease pressure and reduced grain fill pushed producers to cut for silage sooner than planned. Pasture and rangeland were in very poor to good condition. Livestock was in every poor to good across the district.

South Plains

The district experienced extreme heat and drought with daily triple-digit temperatures and only sporadic, insufficient rainfall. Topsoil and subsoil moisture were very short to adequate. Some areas reported up to 1.2 inches of rain. Hail accompanied several storms and caused extensive damage to various crops. The dryland cotton crop in some counties was described as a total loss, while conditions in irrigated cotton ranged from very poor to fair with occasional fields in good condition. Irrigation could not keep pace with crop water demand in the worst-hit areas. Silage chopping continued, and cucumber harvest was active. The potato harvest finished up. Late-planted sorghum struggled even under irrigation. Peanuts were pegging and in fair to good condition. Producers fed supplemental hay to livestock due to the prolonged drought. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to fair, and livestock conditions ranged from poor to good.

Rolling Plains

Triple-digit temperatures and dry south winds continued to push pastures into dormancy across most of the district. Wildfires were a growing concern, with a 77-acre fire reported in one county, and a 3,500-acre fire the previous week that took grazeable land. Stock tanks were dropping and some had gone dry. Dryland cotton was largely written off in many areas, while irrigated cotton showed slight improvement where producers were able to water. The corn harvest wrapped up, with bottomland fields making around 110 bushels per acre and upland fields averaging 75 bushels; feral hog damage cut into yields in some fields. Sorghum yields ran from 3,500-4,500 pounds per acre. Sunflower fields looked good. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to fair, and livestock were poor to good. Producers began feeding hay and supplements to hold cattle through weaning, and some livestock producers were weighing herd reduction decisions.

North

Hot and dry weather with daily highs above 100 degrees pushed summer crops to rapid maturity and drained topsoil moisture across the district. The corn harvest neared completion, with yields reported at 130-170 bushels per acre across the district. The soybean harvest began and was nearly complete, with strong yields reported. The hay harvest continued as dry weather aided cutting and baling, though yields were high and demand was relatively low following strong early season grass production. Burn bans were implemented in some counties. Pasture and rangeland graded poor to good, and topsoil and subsoil moisture were very short to adequate. Livestock remained in fair to good condition, but producers were increasingly concerned about forage and started to feed hay in some areas. Pond levels dropped and some dried up.

East

Triple-digit temperatures and prolonged dryness gripped the district, with heat advisories issued and burn bans in effect in several counties. Rainfall was extremely spotty — some areas received close to 1 inch while nearby areas received no rainfall. Hay production slowed significantly due to dry conditions, though 2026 yields overall had been good. Pastures were browning, and some producers turned cattle into hay fields to graze. The corn harvest was complete, averaging around 145 bushels per acre in some areas. Watermelon and pea harvests slowed. Producers continued scouting for armyworms, grasshoppers and pasture mealybug, and worry over the spread of pasture mealybug increased. Pasture and rangeland ranged from very poor to good, and livestock were fair to excellent. Cattle markets were mixed — feeder calves ran $5-$10 higher per hundredweight at one sale barn while slaughter cattle were about $4 per hundredweight lower, and prices at another auction were lower across most classes. Feral hog activity continued.

Far West

Conditions varied sharply across the district. Triple-digit temperatures dominated most of the district, while the Big Bend area saw productive monsoon activity, with some locations recording localized accumulations of 3 inches of rain. Parts of the Trans-Pecos saw scattered midweek thunderstorms, and the Pecos area received heavy rain and light hail that was more helpful than harmful. Elsewhere, hot and dry conditions kept pushing pastures backward. Cotton was progressing under irrigation, though plants in some counties were shedding squares and small bolls due to relentless heat and above-average nighttime temperatures. Sorghum harvest began, with very little dryland sorghum expected to make it. Corn harvest was approaching in some areas, and melon harvest was winding down. In the El Paso area, cotton looked good in Pima and upland fields, pecan trees were loaded, and alfalfa fields were battling pigweed and grasses that could reduce hay quality. Pecan weevil activity was noted and being sprayed. Livestock remained in poor to good condition, and no screwworm sightings had been reported in the El Paso area. Screwworm concerns remained a top question for producers.

West Central

Hot, dry and windy conditions gripped the district, with daily highs around or above 100 degrees, with no meaningful rain in the forecast. Topsoil and subsoil moisture were very short to adequate. Wildfire danger was high, and small fires broke out along major highways in some areas. Forages were browned out, mature or entering summer dormancy. Cotton was in poor to fair condition, with limited growth and blooms, and below-average yields were expected. Sorghum was fading and grain yields were expected to run lower. Pecan reports remained positive, though trees were beginning to shed pecans in others. Pasture mealybug continued to spread in hayfields, even though pastures and rangeland conditions improved. Livestock remained in poor to excellent condition. Many producers fed livestock hay as grazing declined. Cattle markets stayed active despite futures market fluctuations, with feeder steers and heifers up $3-$5 per hundredweight at one sale barn.

Central

The district endured two weeks of consecutive 100-degree daytime temperatures, drying topsoil rapidly while subsoil moisture held in some areas. Rainfall was highly variable, with totals from 0.8-5 inches and none in many counties. The corn harvest wrapped up, with generally average to above-average yields except where hail hit earlier in the season. Cotton rapidly matured and looked good overall. Spider mite and potential cotton jassid pressure were concerns in later-maturing fields. Sorghum harvest progressed behind the corn effort. Pasture mealybug was widespread and severe, hitting Tifton 85, Bahia, bluestems, sorghum species and Bermuda grasses. Pasture conditions declined sharply. Hay production slowed, with quality and yields suffering. Stock tanks dropped, and a few instances of blue-green algae were observed. Pasture and rangeland were very poor to good. Livestock were in poor to excellent condition. Producers began or continued supplemental feeding, and cattle markets held at favorable levels. Sheep and goat markets were steady.

Southeast

Extremely hot and humid conditions persisted across the district with no rain reported in most counties. Daily temperatures exceeded 100 degrees. Topsoil and subsoil moisture ranged from short to surplus. Pastures declined in most areas, and livestock showed lower rates of gain from heat stress. Some producers began rotating out calves and culling them earlier than planned. The rice harvest was active. Livestock looked good on the grass that remained, and cattle conditions were fair to good. Pasture mealybug damage continued. Producers also reported damage from Bermuda grass stem maggot to fall armyworms and grasshoppers. Pasture and rangeland conditions were poor to good.

Southwest

Hot, dry conditions and extreme heat persisted across the district, with no measurable rainfall in many counties. Corn and grain sorghum harvests continued and were winding down, with average yields and some areas reporting improved yields compared to last year. Cotton advanced, with bolls opening in some areas. Peanuts continued to peg. Pasture mealybug reports increased across multiple counties. The hay harvest continued. Dry conditions created suitable conditions for anthrax, with a confirmed case reported in a neighboring county. Livestock, pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good and poor to good, respectively. Fall shearing raised concerns about New World screwworm risk requiring prompt treatment of shearing cuts. Grasshopper populations remained moderate in improved pastures. Fire danger increased, and some producers were still repairing fences and roads from July flooding. Wildlife had moved onto feeders and bucks were still running in groups.

Coastal Bend

Hot, dry conditions and drying soil moisture dominated the district. Topsoil moisture was very short to adequate, and subsoil moisture ranged from short to surplus. Corn and rice harvests neared completion, and the cotton harvest began with varied results with yields estimated near average in some areas. A lengthy cotton harvest was expected due to wide variability in maturity. Sorghum harvest was largely complete except for replanted fields, which may not make a crop. The hay harvest continued under excellent drying conditions. Pasture mealybug spread across much of the district and was detrimental to forage crops this season, damaging pasture grasses in multiple counties. Pecan trees shed nuts due to dry weather. Pasture and rangeland conditions ranged from poor to excellent. Livestock was in poor to excellent condition.

South

Hot, dry and windy conditions persisted across the district, with triple-digit temperatures daily and no measurable rainfall in most counties. Much of the Lower Rio Grande Valley entered moderate drought. Wildfire danger climbed, with four active fires reported in one county. Corn and grain sorghum harvests were nearly complete. The cotton harvest was underway in the Lower Rio Grande Valley while other areas were about a week and a half from starting. The sesame harvest recently began, and the sunflower harvest was completed. Peanuts continued to peg under irrigation. Cotton bloomed and progressed under irrigation. Citrus growers irrigated to alleviate stress, and hay producers who could irrigate did so to maintain production. Dryland hay production halted as fields browned and went dormant. Producers continued monitoring for pasture mealybug. The buffelgrass seed harvest continued, though seed quality declined. Ranchers hauled water as tanks dried up, and supplemental feeding of hay and cubes increased. Cattle prices dipped slightly at some auction barns, while many producers continued culling to take advantage of strong markets. Livestock remained in poor to good condition. Pastures and rangeland conditions were very poor to good.