With smaller supplies of cattle on hand and good demand for beef continuing, prices could hold and go higher yet, said David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension livestock marketing economist and professor, Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics, who spoke at the Texas A&M Beef Cattle Short Course.

“We are going to produce less beef this year and next year and maybe into 2028,” Anderson said. “We can’t expand the herd in a drought, and the whole Great Plains area has been and is still dry. Expansion is going to happen slowly due to the drought, higher input costs and interest rates, and the market volatility — tariffs, trade, screwworm and other pests — we are still seeing.”

Expansion might be starting, but takes time

Anderson said the slow movement to herd expansion means increases in beef production will also be slow.

“One way to increase beef production will be the cattle from Mexico, with the planned border openings later this month,” he said. “But that will also depend on the speed of the port openings and the number of cattle coming into the U.S.”

The Santa Teresa, New Mexico, port west of El Paso is the largest entry point for Mexican cattle, with more than 500,000 head moving through annually. That port will be the second or third of the various ports to open, with the Douglas, Arizona, port opening first.

“We’ll start importing feeder cattle; my expectation is it will slowly ramp up, and we won’t get as many as we were in 2024 and before,” Anderson said. “These numbers will add to our supply of feeder cattle, but it won’t really depress prices. We’re still going to have high prices.”

That’s because those cattle won’t become beef in the store until mid-2027. So, Anderson said, not much impact is expected on prices in the near term.

In the market

Calf prices will still have room to go up, he said.

“We will have tighter supplies with good demand, and that’s a recipe for higher prices,” Anderson said.

Anderson said fed cattle are selling for an average of $230 per hundredweight now, but by next quarter, they could move to $243-$245 per hundredweight. In 2027, that price could go as high as $250-$256 per hundredweight. Prices for lightweight cattle or feeder calves, 500-600 pounds, have dropped slightly in the past few weeks, from $476.24 to $437.44 per hundredweight, but are expected to climb back as high as $459-$467 per hundredweight in the second quarter of 2027.

He said producers have stopped culling cows as much as they were, but they haven’t been holding back heifers.

“Right now, their dilemma is ‘do I sell the heifers today and get good money or hold the heifers and count on their offspring to make me money?’” Anderson said. “For the most part, the check in hand has been more attractive than the check from future offspring.”

The U.S. Department of Agriculture July cattle report indicated 100,000 heifers had been held back, so that is not huge, he said, but it is an indication that the process has started.

“It’s hard to grow a herd if you don’t keep numbers back,” he said. “However, the trend on the beef side is more pounds of beef per head, so we don’t have to have as big of growth to get back to the same supply as before.”

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Panhandle

Hot, dry conditions dominated the district, with daily highs exceeding 100 degrees in several areas and one county reporting 104 degrees. Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels ranged from very short to adequate. Rainfall was minimal and spotty, with amounts generally under a quarter of an inch where it fell. Dryland sorghum was struggling, and some producers had already turned fields in to crop insurance. Dryland sorghum fields showed more widespread midseason disease pressure than irrigated fields, and growers were electing to harvest forage from some of the most affected acres rather than continue watering. Most cotton fields were on the fast track for flowering and boll development, with many already reaching cutout. Pasture and rangeland were in very poor to good condition. Livestock conditions ranged from very poor to good across the district.

South Plains

Extreme heat gripped the district, with temperatures in the triple digits for more than a week in some areas and heat advisories in effect. Topsoil and subsoil moisture ranged from very short to adequate. Scattered rainfall ranged from trace amounts to 2.26 inches, and hail accompanied the storm system in some areas and damaged crops. Dryland cotton was showing heat stress, wilting and shedding squares in some fields, while irrigated cotton was hanging on where producers could irrigate. Cotton growth was behind schedule but still had a chance to make a good crop if heat units and weather cooperated over the next two months. Irrigated peanuts were pegging and setting pods well, with no larval feeding noted. Corn leafhopper was present and threatening late-planted corn, while grasshoppers and mites were the top concerns elsewhere. Some producers were letting sorghum go in order to concentrate irrigation on cotton and corn. Early silage chopping was reported. Native pastures were drying up, and supplemental feeding of cattle increased. Pasture and rangeland were in very poor to fair condition.

Rolling Plains

Another dry, extremely hot week pushed crop and pasture conditions into decline across much of the district, with 100-degree temperatures and missed rain chances. Topsoil and subsoil moisture ranged from very short to adequate. Pastures were burning up and going dormant. In some areas, the dry grass was becoming a fire hazard. Cotton was mostly holding on but was stressed, and many acres of the hay crop were suffering. Corn and sorghum harvest was wrapping up in the eastern portion of the district, with reports of above-average yields. Hay had been made in volume earlier in the season, but much of the early hay was rained on and quality suffered. Producers were sitting on large surpluses at prices well below breakeven. Livestock were in good condition where grazing remained, but producers in the driest areas were making plans to cull breeding animals. Sunflower fields were expected to go in shortly for a Sept. 1 planting date. Pastures and rangelands were in very poor to good condition.

North

Hot, dry weather dominated the district, with temperatures hovering around 100 degrees for much of the week. July was drier than normal, and wind combined with heat pulled soil moisture down quickly. Corn harvest was underway across the district and running earlier than normal, with silage corn and sorghum being cut in some areas and grain corn maturing rapidly. Grain sorghum and soybean harvest were also in progress in some counties, and late-planted soybeans were advancing quickly. Hay harvest continued in high gear where conditions allowed. Fall armyworms were reported in hay fields and pastures in several areas, and grasshoppers were on the rise. Pastures and hay fields were still holding condition, though sandy soils were severely lacking moisture and forage growth was slowing after cuttings and grazing. Grape, fig and okra harvest continued, while melon harvest was tapering off for the season. Livestock were in fair to excellent condition, and pasture and rangeland were in poor to good condition.

East

Hot, dry conditions continued across the district with several counties recording triple-digit temperatures and heat indexes that pushed producers to work cattle only in the cooler morning hours. Topsoil and subsoil moisture ranged from very short to adequate. Pastures were drying up rapidly, grass was turning brown, and fire hazard was on the rise. Hay production was in full swing as producers took advantage of extended dry weather to build winter feed supplies, though yields were slightly down and quality was mixed. Armyworm and Bermuda grass stem maggot infestations continued to be reported sporadically in pastures and hay meadows. Livestock were in fair to excellent condition, with cattle chasing shade during the afternoon heat. Cattle markets softened following the announcement that the southern border would reopen to Mexican feeder cattle imports. At one auction, feeder steers and heifers were $10-$15 lower per hundredweight and plainer calves were $25 lower; at another, calf prices dropped $10 to $20 per hundredweight for the second consecutive week. Cow-calf pairs and bred cows held firm. Watermelon harvest slowed, and producers continued scouting for pasture mealybug. Feral hogs remained a problem in some areas. Pasture and rangeland were in poor to excellent condition.

Far West

Hot conditions with heat advisories dominated much of the district, though the impact varied widely depending on earlier rainfall. In the eastern areas, recent July rains had significantly improved range and pasture productivity, enhanced soil moisture reserves, and led to improved livestock body condition. In other areas, two weeks of 98-degree averages and no rain took a heavy toll on cotton, with bolls quickly moving to the top on all but the best irrigated fields. A once-promising cotton crop looked below average at best. Corn and sorghum were finished and drying down. Melons were winding down as vine conditions declined. Forage sorghum and Sudan grass looked good in some areas, and producers were turning cattle out to graze it. Increased rainfall in some pastures also brought greater fly and parasite pressure. Livestock conditions ranged from poor to good, and pasture and rangeland were in very poor to good condition. Supplemental feeding continued where pastures had dried up. Whitetail deer were in velvet with fawns growing well.

West Central

Hot, windy conditions dried soils quickly, and much of the district needed rain. Some areas received under a half inch of rainfall over the weekend, while others received up to 1.25 inches. Topsoil and subsoil moisture ranged from short to adequate. Cotton was fair to good depending on location. Some fields began to bloom at the top of the plant, signaling the end of vegetative growth. Sorghum conditions declined under heat stress. Hay producers were cutting second and even third rounds of coastal Bermuda grass. Some stopped cutting because of hay surpluses and were grazing instead. Land preparation for small grains resumed in some areas. The pecan crop was holding up well. Confirmed pasture mealybug infestations greatly increased in some counties as outreach and education helped more producers recognize the signs of damage. At one auction, stocker steers were selling $10 to $15 higher per hundredweight, and pairs and bred cows were in strong demand. Pasture and rangeland were in very poor to good condition. Livestock conditions ranged from poor to excellent.

Central

Hot and dry conditions prevailed across the district. High temperatures pushed into the upper 90s and above 100 degrees, but a cool front late in the week offered modest relief. Corn and grain sorghum harvest was well underway. Some areas reported 80% of corn harvested, and sorghum neared completion. Yields ranged from very good to slightly above average, depending on where fields caught spring and early summer rains. Early planted cotton had bolls opening, and stink bug damage could still be found, though pest issues were slowing. Hay was still being cut but was drying and turning yellow-brown quickly. Pasture mealybug hit producers hard across multiple counties, with agents fielding several calls per week from hay producers finding the pest. Fall armyworms were showing up in many fields, and Bermuda grass stem maggots continued to damage pastures. Pecan scab was a heavy problem in some areas. Livestock were in poor to excellent condition, and the cattle market remained strong at local sale barns. Pasture and rangeland were in poor to good condition.

Southeast

Fields continued drying out from July flooding as hot temperatures and moderate breezes pulled moisture from topsoil. Topsoil and subsoil moisture ranged from short to adequate. Corn and grain sorghum harvest was underway in several counties, with corn harvest expected to accelerate as flooded fields dried. Pasture mealybug damage was reported extensively across the district in both improved and native pastures. Fencing crews worked to repair and replace fences damaged during the flooding, and lost livestock were still being gathered. Wildlife losses from the floods were expected to be high, and exotic animals were scattered in some places. Pasture and rangeland were in fair to excellent condition. Livestock conditions were fair to good. Whitetail fawns had lost their spots, bucks were showing strong antler development, and oak trees appeared to be carrying a heavy acorn load.

Southwest

Hot, humid conditions persisted across the district, with heat indexes a concern for people working outside and for livestock. Topsoil and subsoil moisture ranged from short to adequate. Rice and corn harvest were well underway with yields looking good to excellent. Grain sorghum harvest began in some counties, and about half of the cotton was blooming. Hay harvest continued. Pasture mealybug remained a widespread and significant problem, causing damage to bluestem, crabgrass, Bahia grass, Bermuda grass and Tifton in pastures and hay fields throughout the district. Producers were also watching for fall armyworms and Bermuda grass stem maggot. Livestock were in fair to excellent condition. Pasture and rangeland were in poor to excellent condition.

Coastal Bend

Extreme heat and windy conditions depleted soil moisture across the district, with temperatures at 95 degrees and higher and no significant rainfall. Topsoil and subsoil moisture ranged from very short to adequate. Sorghum harvest was largely complete; corn harvest was nearing the end, and cotton harvest was beginning on early plantings. Cotton yield potential was reduced by heat and dry conditions, and late-planted cotton took the biggest hit, with some fields showing signs of complete failure. Rice harvest was active. Hay production was in high gear. Pasture mealybug continued to plague hay fields and pastures across much of the district, with severe infestations combining with dry weather to push some range and pasture conditions to very poor. Cattle body condition remained fair to excellent.

South

Extreme heat dominated the district, with temperatures over 100 degrees nearly every day and little to no measurable rainfall in most counties. A few areas caught scattered showers, including around a half inch in some counties, but most areas reported none. Grain sorghum and corn harvest advanced rapidly, running about 85% complete in the Lower Rio Grande Valley and progressing across the district. Cotton harvest began on early plantings with defoliation underway, though some late-planted fields remained very green with only lower bolls opening. Sesame continued to develop, peanuts were pegging, and citrus orchards remained under irrigation. Hay producers took advantage of the dry weather to bale, and a lot of hay was being made. Recovery from the July flooding continued along the river bottoms. The Frio floodwaters had receded while the Nueces was flooding the southern portion of one county, and producers reported crop and livestock losses. Pasture and rangeland deteriorated under the prolonged heat and dry conditions, and supplemental feeding increased in some areas. New World screwworm remained an active concern in several counties, though local cattle numbers and prices were largely unaffected. Cattle markets softened following the announcement that the southern border would reopen to Mexican cattle imports. Stocker and feeder calf prices slipped while cow and bull prices held steady to slightly stronger. Livestock were in fair to excellent condition, and pasture and rangeland ranged from very poor to good. Wildlife were in good condition, with fawns progressing and quail and turkey seen with their offspring.