Texas beef herd signals higher prices ahead for producers and consumers

Nationally, the number of beef cows dropped just over 1%, a sharper decline than many market analysts expected, said David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics.

In Texas, the nation’s largest beef‑producing state, cow numbers dipped by about 30,000 head, but producers held back 50,000 more heifers — an 8% increase in replacements that could signal the early stages of a slow rebuild, Anderson said.

He said strong calf prices and historically tight cattle supplies continue to shape producer decisions about growing their herds.

“That suggests we’re bottoming out — holding a few more replacements for future growth,” Anderson said. “But there’s nothing here that suggests rapid growth.”

A slower rebuild and tighter cattle supplies will continue to ripple from cow-calf operations to feedlots and packers, all the way to grocery stores, Anderson said.

Beef herd numbers signal slow rebuild

The rebuild process appears far more measured than past post‑drought recoveries, said Jason Cleere, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension beef cattle specialist in the Texas A&M Department of Animal Science. Heifer retention ratios are trending upward across many regions of the state, yet high prices are causing some ranchers to weigh short‑term returns against long‑term herd growth.

Bred‑heifer values reaching $4,000–$5,000 have created an incentive for producers to sell rather than hold on to calves, he said.

“There’s pressure to just sell them and take advantage of the market and then worry about rebuilding next year,” he said. “Many producers also remember the last rebuild — how fast it went and how fast prices plummeted afterward. They’re just a touch more cautious this time around.”

Texas’ long‑term cattle capacity has also been thinned by rapid urban expansion, land fragmentation, and the conversion of quality pasture into solar and other non‑agricultural uses. Those losses, Cleere said, translate directly into fewer cows in the statewide and national herd.

Cleere said emerging drought around the state could also influence cattle producer decisions related to their herds.

Historically high prices could go higher

Anderson said the January inventory report is typically a strong indicator for how the year will shape up. Cattle physiology is already shaping the coming years. Most heifers are ready to breed by 15 months, and calves gestate for more than nine months. Calves reach finishing weight in 18-20 months.

Anderson and Cleere expect calf prices could go even higher in 2026 and 2027 due to tightened supplies. Last week, 500-600-pound steers were selling for $450 per hundredweight on average in Texas, compared to $326 per hundredweight at the same time last year.

Margins should remain strong for cow-calf producers, potentially even better than last year, supported by lower feed costs and sustained demand, Anderson said. But the year’s outlook for Texas will hinge heavily on how the drought evolves.

“You don’t see a lot of market reaction to the January report, but it’s one that tends to place an anchor for where things are, and that has a longer-term effect on prices,” Anderson said.

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Panhandle

The district received various amounts of moisture from snowfall and ice. Average daytime temperatures were higher than the previous week, and the snow melt provided topsoil moisture for small grains, including wheat, oats, triticale and broadleaf cover crops. Overall soil moisture levels were very short to adequate. Hay and supplemental protein were being fed to beef cattle. Cattle were in good condition overall, and some small grain pastures were being grazed. Pasture and range conditions were very poor to good, and winter wheat was mostly fair.

South Plains

The district received moisture in the form of freezing rain and snowfall. Counties reported anywhere from 1.5-6 inches of snow. The topsoil soil moisture levels were adequate due to the recent snowfall. This storm brought frigid temperatures and dangerous wind chills. Most cattle were in good condition, but there were concerns about the freezing temperatures impacting calving. Most cattle were relying heavily on supplemental hay and feed. Producers were preparing for fieldwork and planting as soon as conditions allowed them to access fields.

Rolling Plains

A major winter storm brought several inches of snow and ice across the district with bitter cold temperatures persisting for much of the week. Snow and sleet covered the ground for several days, which delayed fieldwork and provided limited moisture to improve surface soil conditions. Overall soil moisture levels were short. Livestock producers faced significant challenges as wind chills dropped below zero. Supplemental feeding of hay and cubes was widespread, frozen water sources required constant attention, and producers worked overtime to protect newborn livestock. While livestock conditions remained mostly fair to good, some losses were reported during the storm. Winter wheat conditions range from poor to fair due to dry conditions, which limited early grazing potential. Range and pasture conditions remained poor to fair. Temperatures returned to more seasonable levels, with above-average temperatures expected in the coming week, but little chance of additional precipitation needed to support wheat, oats and upcoming spring crop preparation.

North

Subsoil and topsoil moisture levels were very short to short. A winter storm brought frigid temperatures, snow and sleet. Overall, counties across the district averaged about 5 inches of sleet. Recent precipitation improved some of the drought conditions, including the ice melt. Winter wheat was under a blanket of ice all week. Since fertilizing was done prior to this storm, producers expect to see a significant increase in progress over the next few weeks. Livestock were doing well. Pasture and range conditions were fair to good.

East

Subsoil conditions were adequate to short, while topsoil conditions were adequate. The district experienced extreme cold temperatures along with ice and a little snow. The freezing temperatures and ice presented major challenges for producers. The build-up of ice caused problems with electricity in many areas. Falling trees and limbs resulted in damage to fences and other property. Pasture and rangeland conditions ranged from very poor to fair. Hay supplies, cubes and other grains were provided to livestock that were in fair to good condition. There were several reports of feral hog activity.

Far West

Recent conditions were influenced by a significant winter storm that brought snow, sleet, light freezing rain and several days of below freezing temperatures, with accumulations generally ranging from 2-4 inches. Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels were very short to short. While the precipitation was welcomed, moisture totals were limited in many locations. Winter wheat and oats remained mostly dormant, with crop conditions generally fair and minimal freeze damage observed, though late-emerging wheat may only provide ground cover. Cotton producers faced setbacks as rain and snow delayed plow down and stalk destruction. Pecan orchards remained wet, slowing harvest and pruning, although pecan-cleaning plants continued operating. Pastures and rangeland benefited from the moisture but remained dormant with limited forage, making supplemental feeding necessary. Livestock conditions were reported as fair to good, with producers increasing feed during the cold stress period. Lambing and kidding started in some areas. Fieldwork was slowed for several days due to frozen ground, closed roads and impassable dirt roads after snowmelt, but no major damage was reported. Pasture and rangeland conditions were mostly very poor to poor. Livestock conditions were poor to fair, depending on supplemental feed availability.

West Central

Good moisture was received from all the rain, ice and snow. However, some cattle producers reported calf losses;  some producers may have lost calves breaking through the ice trying get to water. Parts of the district recorded over 96 hours below freezing temperatures. Conditions turned muddy after the ice melted. Some areas remained covered in snow and ice. Overall, soil moisture levels remained short despite the melt and topsoil improvement. Wheat and oat fields were yellowed by the extreme cold, but fields were expected to bounce back with sunshine, warmer temperatures and moisture. Range and pasture conditions were expected to improve as well. Livestock were receiving supplemental feed, and some producers were providing water. Cattle markets remained strong.

Central

Freezing temperatures, ice and snow were reported, and considerable ice hindered travel. Winter pasture conditions took a hit with cold weather. Range and pastures were frozen over, and the ice started to melt off later in the week, leaving what appeared to be mostly foliage damage. Wheat fields fertilized prior to the weather event exhibited the worst symptoms. Crops should rebound over time if the ice protected the small grains from the single-digit temperatures. Bitter cold conditions and frozen participation kept livestock producers busy. Livestock were in fair condition, with producers having to put out feed and hay.

Southeast

Counties reported adequate moisture, but some areas reported continued declining conditions trending toward extreme drought. Counties experienced multiple cold nights or extended periods below freezing, which slowed field activity and limited winter forage growth. Winter forages and pastures were described as stunted, declining or in fair conditions. Pasture and range conditions were very poor to good across the district. Most producers increased supplemental feeding, including hay, cubes and other feeds, to maintain livestock condition. Livestock conditions remained fair to excellent, but cold weather stress heightened management demands.

Southwest

Recent moisture in the form of rain, ice, sleet and a small amount of snow benefited soil conditions. But overall, conditions remained dry. Multiple cold fronts caused delays in field preparation for spring planting. Oats and wheat needed additional moisture soon to maintain progress. Irrigated crops experienced some stress from subfreezing temperatures but continued to perform adequately. Morning freezing conditions caused plant death or dormancy in rangeland and pastures, though additional moisture should help support spring green-up. Some small grains showed signs of setback due to the cold weather. Producers supplemented livestock heavily and added extra hay to accommodate the conditions. Livestock markets remained steady to high. Cattle and sheep were managed through the cold weather, though some losses occurred. Producers were burning brushy plants.

Coastal Bend

Extreme cold and icy weather delivered a killing frost and subsequent freezing temperatures. Rainfall was varied, with some areas receiving up to about 1.25 inches, though drought conditions persisted in most areas. Soil moisture remained limited, and producers attempted to conserve moisture while finishing fertilizer and herbicide applications and field preparation for future planting of corn, soybeans, sorghum and cotton. Pasture conditions were mostly poor, with any grazing set back by the freeze, and cool-season forages showing only short-term improvement from recent moisture. Livestock conditions were generally fair, though some reduced body conditions were noted. Supplemental feeding and hay use were at the highest point of the season. Hay supplies were tight, and livestock water was a major concern due to critically low surface water tanks and reliance on wells and troughs.

South

Conditions were very cold, with temperatures at or near freezing. There was no moisture with the strong cold front. Temperatures were expected to gradually rise over the next few days. With as little as 2.6 inches of rainfall recorded over the past seven months, dry conditions continued with topsoil and subsoil moisture mostly very short to short. Planting preparations were underway, though delays were anticipated due to insufficient soil moisture. Farmers were waiting for moisture before applying fertilizer. In some areas, freezing temperatures burned what was left of any Bermuda grass in the fields. Onions were progressing well, and producers were monitoring for any freeze damage. Spinach, arugula, kale, broccoli, onions and cabbage producers reported significant damage to crops. Oats continued to progress, while other fields were being prepared for the next planting. Citrus and vegetable crops did not show damage from the recent freeze, and harvest activities continued. Range conditions remained poor, and plants were dormant. Grazing was scarce, and many areas showed barren soil. Beef cattle producers were supplementing their herds at a higher level, and that was expected to continue until the spring green-up begins. Livestock and wildlife were in good condition, with ranchers and wildlife owners steadily putting out hay and supplemental feed for their animals. Cattle prices remained favorable across all classes. Producers were selling cows and calves due to drought and high market prices.