Op-Ed: American businesses dodged $11 billion tax: state-by-state breakdown of paused Greenland tariffs
When President Trump canceled his threatened Greenland tariffs days after the announcement, 33 U.S. states dodged $11 billion in additional tariff costs – they would have been absorbed by American businesses and consumers.
It’s because despite administration claims that foreign exporters bear tariff costs, a Kiel Institute study has found that U.S. importers and consumers pay for 96% of the burden.
New state-by-state analysis from InvestorsObserver reveals where and how much in the U.S. businesses and consumers would have had to face the biggest tariff costs.
We analyzed U.S. states that have targeted European countries as their top 5 import partners. The findings show how much Americans are exposed, and which of the eight European countries have the greatest impact on American household costs.
Why is it still relevant?
Media reports that details of the deal that made President Trump cancel Greenland tariffs are still vague, which means the structural vulnerabilities our research exposes – 33 states’ dependencies on European imports – remain unresolved.
Key findings:
-
U.S. businesses and consumers would have borne 96% of the total tariff burden – $26.78 billion out of $27.9 billion in combined baseline and Greenland tariffs.
-
33 U.S. states count one or more of the eight targeted European countries among their top 5 import partners, and would have faced $11.36 billion in additional Greenland tariff costs between Feb–Dec 2026.
-
In these 33 states, U.S. businesses and consumers would have had to absorb $10.91 billion in Greenland tariff costs between Feb–Dec 2026.
-
Georgia, North Carolina, and New Jersey would have absorbed $7 billion in combined tariff costs.
-
31 states count Germany among their top 5 import partners, with Maryland and Rhode Island ranking Germany as their No. 1 partner.
-
Across the U.S. – not just in the states which have targeted European countries as their top five import partners – the total Greenland tariff burden for Americans would have been $31.88 billion between Feb–Dec 2026.
“While Trump’s retreat spares these states for now, the analysis exposes deep supply chain vulnerabilities, especially in automotive and machinery sectors dependent on Germany. If trade tensions reignite, states like Georgia and North Carolina have billions of dollars at stake. The threat may be postponed, but the structural exposure remains,” said Sam Bourgi, senior analyst at InvestorsObserver.
Let me know if you want to interview Sam (he’s based in North America). He’s more than happy to share tailored insights in a live or recorded interview, or a written Q&A. Recent media: Fox 5 DC (live), ABC30 Actions News, Bloomberg, 11Alive.
ABOUT SAM BOURGI
Sam Bourgi is a finance analyst and researcher at InvestorsObserver, bringing over 13 years of expertise in financial markets, economics, and monetary policy. His professional background spans the private, nonprofit, and public sectors, where he has held positions such as senior policy adviser, labor market analyst, and marketing director. Sam’s in-depth research and market analysis have been referenced by leading institutions and organizations, including the U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Bank for International Settlements, Boston University Law Review, Barron’s, and Forbes. Sam regularly appears on TV, including FOX 5 DC, CBN, KFYR TV, 11Alive, and ABC30, and is often quoted by such media outlets as Bloomberg, SF Chronicle and ZeroHedge.
ABOUT INVESTORS OBSERVER
InvestorsObserver is a trusted source of independent financial analysis, market insights, and investment research for individuals and institutions. Founded to empower retail investors with actionable intelligence, InvestorsObserver delivers timely commentary, data-driven studies, and accessible financial tools designed to simplify complex market trends. Its research and insights have been featured by various media outlets, including Yahoo, The Guardian, Morning Star, Nasdaq, and more.
